Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CST THU MAR 8 2001

LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NORTH TO
NORTH TEXAS WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS NW ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER CWFA HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK
AND IS A KEY FACTOR IN MITIGATING STRONG CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MESO-ETA INDICATE FOCUS SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF 850
MB AND SFC E-W TROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SAGGING SOUTHWARD BY
DURING EVENING TOWARDS IAH. SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER REGION BY MID
EVENING W/UPPER LOW TO THE NW (NEAR CLL). EXPECT MUCH OF CONVECTION
TO BE OVER COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING EVENING MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES DESPITE FAST
MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT WIND BEHIND FRONT MEET SCA
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL WATERS BUT JUST BELOW THRESHOLD FOR BAYS. AVN
INDICATES INCREASE IN PW VALUES LATER ON SUNDAY TO 1.5 INCHES AS
GULF OPENS UP. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE BENIGN UNTIL NEXT FRONT ON THURSAY.

37/99

.KHGX...SCA 0-60 NM COASTAL WATERS. SCEC BAYS.

CLL BB 050/064 047/066 053 +20
IAH BB 053/066 049/067 055 +20
GLS BB 058/066 055/067 062 +30

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST THU MAR 8 2001

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IT APPEARS
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL MAINLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
HEMPSTEAD TO GALVESTON LINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL AFFECT THE COLLEGE STATION AREA
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM...THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT AND GALVESTON BETWEEN 8 PM AND 3 AM.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON
SATURATED GROUND IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY CAUSE SOME RUN-OFF
PROBLEMS. MANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ABOVE
BANKFULL. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THESE RIVER BASINS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

ALSO...DUE TO UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF THE WINDS THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

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