Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 AM CDT SUN SEP 8 2001

ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX WITH 850 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 16C TO 18C...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.
PWS PROGGED BY BOTH AVN/ETA TO HOVER AROUND 2 INCHES TODAY. 300 MB
DIFLUENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING AS SE TX GOES INTO
RRQ OF JET MOVING ACROSS NW TX/OK. BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW STRONG LIFT
FROM SFC TO 500 MB THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN. REMNANTS OF MCS SHOULD
REACH NRN ZONES AFTER 10Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS WILL ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE WILL ALSO SERVE AS
CONVECTIVE FOCUS TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
ZONES AND PUT OUT HWO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
MINIMAL AS SOUNDINGS WILL RUN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TODAY AND MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK...AROUND 10 KNOTS AT 500 MB.

AVN STILL RUNNING ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH FROPA ACROSS CWA...BUT
IS TOO HIGH CURRENTLY WITH SFC PRESSURES OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL
LEAN TOWARD SLOWER MESOETA WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT...REACHING NW
ZONES LATE TODAY AND COASTAL WATERS LATE TNGT. EXPECT TSRA TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PWS PROGGED TO
HOVER AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES SRN HALF MONDAY...AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW
POPS FOR THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL DEFINITELY TAKE ITS TIME
FILTERING IN ACROSS SE TX BEHIND FRONT. AVN IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH DRYING LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LIKELY TOO QUICK. WILL GO
ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT HOUSTON AND COAST.

FOR EXTENDED...500 MB HIGH BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY.
PER AVN...SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
DRY AIR ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MIGHT SEE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHTS.

.HGX...SCEC HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA OUT 60 NM THIS MORNING.

35/46/TF

PRELIMS...
CLL TB 086/069 086/066 090 631
IAH TE 090/071 087/069 090 643
GLS TE 089/077 086/075 086 643

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-092200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CDT SUN SEP 9 2001

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS FROM THE HEAVIER STORMS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF
FEEDER ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION TODAY. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ANY LOCATION
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD IT ONLY TAKES A FEW FEET OF RUNNING WATER
TO SWEEP AWAY MOST VEHICLES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS.