Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...REMOVED CAUTION FOR BAYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
144 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS AND DANGEROUS
WEATHER PLAYER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON INTO THE WEEKEND. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS HAVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IN HOUSTON COUNTY WITH A
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE COLLEGE STATION AREA LATER
TODAY. RAINS CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTER AND ARE FALLING OVER
SATURATED GROUND. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS WHARTON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNDER THE
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. MODELS ATTEMPT TO BULLSEYE THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED SINCE ALLISON MADE LANDFALL) WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINS LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT CURRENT RADAR
PICTURES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
FROM CLEVELAND TO THE WOODLANDS TO KATY. VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHEN AND WHERE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...BUT AS CIRCULATION
CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON
AREA...BEST INFLOW OFF THE GULF (WHICH HAS BEEN IN LOUISIANA AND HAS
CAUSED HEAVY RAIN AND SERIOUS FLOODING THERE) WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED
UP TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WHEN ALLISON MADE LANDFALL ON TUESDAY...AND
OTHER AREAS GOT ANOTHER 5 TO 11 INCHES THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL EVENTS AS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD THE
COASTAL BEND AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL SYSTEMS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

NOTE: THE HGX RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP PRODUCT IS UP TO 23.4 INCHES
AND THE MAX VALUE WE CAN DISPLAY IS 25.4 INCHES. WE ARE UNABLE TO
INCREASE THE VALUE GREATER THAN 25.4 INCHES. RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE
BEEN CORRESPONDING CLOSE TO ACTUAL VALUES.

42/35/43/39/DH

.KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
        TONIGHT.
        SCEC 0-60 NM WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 072/082 072/082 072 877
IAH TT 073/082 073/082 072 877
GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 877