Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
155 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2001

WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CONVECTION ON THE WK TROF THE REST OF THIS AFTN
1ST...THEN A BETTER CHC OF MEANINGFUL CONVECTION TUE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WK FNTL BOUNDARY NOW MOVG ACRS NRN AND CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA.  THE BEST INSTAB...OF COURSE...IS RIGHT ALG THIS LN
ATTM.  WUD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONT AS THE FNT APCHS THE CST.
WIND FIELD DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STG ENUF FOR ORGANIZED SVR...BUT
INSTAB IS IMPRESSIVE.  WL WATCH FOR HAIL AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTN.

INSTAB BHND THIS AS WELL...AS ACTIVITY IS FIRING ON ANOTHER OLD
BOUNDARY IN QUEBEC.  THIS ACTIVITY CUD SURVIVE TO AFFECT THE NRN AND
CNTRL ZNS LATER THIS EVENING...SO MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE EFFECTIVE
TIME OF THE PCPN TIL MIDN THESE ZNS.  MAY JUST LEAVE A MENTION FOR
THE EVE FOR THE CST...BUT GIVEN THE AMS REMAINS UNSTABLE...MAY
EXTEND THE MENTION THRU MIDN TO THE CST AS WELL.

OTRW...NOT MUCH ELSE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR TNGT...SO WL PROBABLY
DROP THE MENTION OF PCPN AS IT DIES OUT DURG THE EVENING.  VIS LOOP
SHOWS SUM ST ALG THE CST...ESP IN THE MID COAST REGION...SO WL BRING
FG BACK INTO THE FCST.  ELSEWHERE...WL MENTION PATCHY FOG...ESP
WHERE RA FALLS.

MOS MINS NUMBERS APPEAR OK...SINCE THERE IS REALLY NO AMS CHANGE
BHND THIS BOUNDARY.

FOR TUE...INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO AVBL FOR A DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
TUE AFTN.  LIMITING FACTOR CUD END UP BEING INSTAB...SINCE THE
BREAKUP OF ANY ST...AND INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOIST AHEAD OF THE FNT.
BLV THAT THERE WL BE A PD OF SUN DURG THE MRNG.  THIS SHUD ALLOW
INSTAB TO MAXIMIZE IN THE AFTN.  BEST CHC FOR SIG CONVECTION WUD BE
SRN NH AND SWRN AND INTERIOR CNTRL...WHERE THE ONSHORE FLO SHUD BE
MITIGATED.  WL NOT ADD ENHANCED WORDING YET...SINCE LACK OF
INSOLATION CUD END UP INTERFERING WITH ACTIVITY...ESP IN CNTRL ME.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...BLV THERE WL BE AT LEAST A PD OF SS FOR SRN
NH AND SWRN ME...SO THE NGM MOS NUMBERS HERE LUK OK.  ELSEWHERE...WL
STAY CLOSER TO THE AVN MOS NUMBERS.

WL GO WITH A LIKELY POP ALL ZNS...AND MENTION AFTN FOR MOST.

THE ACTIVITY SHUD DIE OFF TUE EVE...WITH THE HIEST POPS ACRS ERN
ZNS.  A BIT DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICK THE FNT GETS OUT FO
THE FA.  NOT SURE THAT RUSHING THE FNT IS WISE...SINCE THE BEST PUSH
WITH THE FNT SEEMS TO RELAX TUE EVE.  WL BRING A CHANGE IN AMS FOR
NRN ZNS...BUT GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER NGM MOS NUMBERS IN THE SRN AND
ERN ZNS.

FOR WED...THE AMS CHANGES FOR JUST ABT EVERYONE...BUT THE QUESTION
IN MY MIND REMAINS:  WL THERE BE ENUF INSTAB LEFTOVER (WITH COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT) FOR CONVECTION.  FOR NOW...WL PROBABLY LIMIT ACTIVITY
TO NRN ZNS...AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE POTNL LATER.

MOS NUMBERS LUK REASONABLE FOR MAXES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WITH THE UPPER LO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WL CONT A
MENTION OF SHRA FOR THU AND FRI...THEN DRY AND WARMER THEREAFTER.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA FOR A TIME TUE
AFTN AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT.  SEAS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME COMING
DOWN...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WINDS/SEAS SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA
THRU THE FCST PD.

PRELIM WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL SOON.  AS ALWAYS...COMMENTS/OPINIONS
WELCOME.

.GYX...NONE.

HAYES