Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2001

UPPER LOW WL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DEEP SLY TROPICAL
FLOW WL CONTINUE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW. IN FACT...LAYER RH/S
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 TO 70 PERCENT TMRW AND FRI. COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW...AND SOME SUPPORT
FORM AN ERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS FL...LOOKS QUITE UNSETTLED FOR A FEW
DAYS.

FIRST ORDER OF CONCERN TNGT IS CONVECTION OVER THE MIDLANDS.
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT MID LEVEL COULD TROF ROTATING OUT OF AL GA WOULD
CREATE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STG CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS. A GOOD DEAL
OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE MTNS..BUT IT HAS BEEN WEEK.
MEANWHILE THERE HAS BEEN A HUGE BLOWUP IN THE LOW COUNTRY AND
MIDLANDS...WHICH IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NW. WL MAKE UP MY MIND AT
ZONE TIME AS TO WHETHER TO GO HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS IN THE
UPSTATE. WL GO W/50 POP MTNS AS WELL...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER VORT SPOKE ROUNDS THE TROF THU. WL/DEEP MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...WL GO LIKELY MTNS AND HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

WL GO W/40 POPS FRI. IF THE HIGH RH FIELDS PAN OUT...COULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE..BUT FORCING IS WEAK...AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE POPS EVERY DAY. APPEARS
THAT FROPA WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK. AS A RESULT THE AIRMASS
DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH AS WE STAY ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHICH MEANS A CONTINUED TROPICAL CONNECTION.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   67  85  68  88 /  50  50  40  40
AND   67  85  68  88 /  50  50  40  40
CLT   67  85  68  88 /  50  50  40  40
HKY   67  83  68  85 /  50  50  40 N 40
AVL   62  80  63  82 /  50  60  50  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-SCZ001>003-272115-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN FACT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SPOTTER 6GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY