Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EST MON DEC 17 2001

AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO WRN MOUNTAINS OF NC IS OF PRIMARY CONCERN.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND MAKING A QUICK EXIT BY 06Z
TUESDAY. SEE NO REASON TO DISPUTE THIS WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF 20Z. WILL GO WITH
AN 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE ACROSS ALL ZONES EVEN THOUGH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE WORKING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AT 6 PM. WORDING
WILL BE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE  MID EVENING SINCE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO BRING SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO RIDGETOP LEVEL.

SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE E COAST TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS IN THE
MORNING AS WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORCED UP THE WESTERN
SLOPES...OTHERWISE A GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...CLEARING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND
RAPID BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY AS A STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND
DEVELOPS. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD COUNTER THE COLD ADVECTION AT
LOW LEVELS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE ETA AND AVN ARE CONSISTENT BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE DAYS 3-5 AS A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

EXTENDED RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASING HIGH LVL RH SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE & LIFT LOOKS TO BE SUN NITE INTO MONDAY & FOR NOW...WILL
CONFINE SHOWER MENTION TO DAY 7.

FCSTID = 10
GSP   45  62  33  60 /  80   0   0   0
AND   46  63  33  61 /  80   0   0   0
CLT   50  63  33  60 /  80   0   0   0
HKY   45  60  31  57 /  80   0   0   0
AVL   43  56  30  56 /  80  10   0   0

.GSP...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONE GAZ010.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
NCZ033...NCZ048>053...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>065.
SC...NONE.

MOORE/55