Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

VORT MAX IN WSW FLOW PRESENTLY PUSHING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH UPSTREAM STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER ARKLATEX SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION. TIME SECTIONS ARE SATURATED THROUGH THE
COLUMN...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER MOUNTAINS WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXTENDING INTO PIEDMONT.

MODELS STILL LACK AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING...BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD SEND RETURN FLOW
WITH MOISTURE BACK OVER THE BOUNDARY. SPECTRAL RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY TOO FAR S BY SUNDAY WITH TOO MUCH DEEP
LAYER DRYING OVER THE CAROLINAS. LATEST RUNS ALONG WITH EXTENDED
ENSEMBLES POINTING TOWARD MUCH MORE PRECIP IN DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WILL KEEP THE EARLY EXTENDED
WETTER AND COOLER THAN MEX MOS.

FCSTID = 33
GSP   70  82  67  82 /  60  60  40  30
AND   70  82  67  82 /  60  60  40  30
CLT   70  82  64  81 /  60  50  30  20
HKY   68  78  62  78 /  60  50  30  20
AVL   65  77  62  78 /  80  60  40  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

HG