Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2001

ZONES MAY BE A LITTLE LATE. HAD TO DO A MAJOR REWRITE TO THE FCST
MATRIX. ONLY ONE LOCATION...CLT...REPORTING DENSE FOG ATTM. WILL
ALLOW DFA TO EXPIRE. WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED NWD INTO THE
CWFA...GRD/EQY SOUTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY RISING TEMPS/DEW POINTS. COLD
POOL REMAINS OVER REST OF CWFA. SFC LOW MOVING NWD TO OUR WEST...SO
EROSION OF COLD POOL LIKELY TO CONTINUE...BUT SLOWLY. THIS INCREASES
CHC OF SVR WX ALONG OUR SRN TIER COUNTIES...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FCST ATTM. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WWA TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF FNT THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA BUILDING TO OUR WEST AND WILL SLIDE EAST INTO OUR
AREA LATER. ALL THIS AGREES WITH CURRENT FCST.

TEMPS/WINDS ARE ANOTHER STORY. HAVE SPLIT OFF SRN TIER WITH WARMER
TEMPS AND HIER WINDS. HAVE LEFT OUT LWA ATTM GIVEN POOR CONDITIONS
PER LOCAL POLICY. MADE SOME CHANGES TO WINDS/TEMPS ELSEWHERE
INDICATING SLOWER EROSION OF COLD POOL.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.

GSP   58  46  49  29 / 100  90  40  20
AND   59  46  49  29 / 100  90  40  20
CLT   59  45  48  27 / 100  90  50  20
HKY   53  42  45  25 / 100  90  50  30
AVL   56  38  38  22 / 100  90  60  60

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY FOR ZONES NCZ033...NCZ048>052...
NCZ058.
SC...NONE.

RWH

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-192251-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2001

...VERY HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST
REGION. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST TO ALONG THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT WAS THE LEADING
EDGE OF MUCH WARMER...UNSTABLE AIR...THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTHWARD...AS THE GEORGIA SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN AREAS THAT SEE
THE GREATEST RISE IN TEMPERATURES...AND WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WHERE
THE AIR IS MOST STABLE.

THE AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WAS STILL QUITE STABLE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN SHARPLY INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT...FROM ELBERTON TO
GREENWOOD...CLINTON...CHESTER AND MONROE. THE AIR WAS MUCH MORE
MOISTURE-LADEN THERE...AND IT IS THESE AREAS THAT SEEM THE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. THE WIND PROFILE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70
MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WIND
DAMAGE FROM THUNDERSTORM GUSTS OR TORNADOES SEEMS THE MOST PROBABLE
SEVERE WEATHER PHENOMENON WITH THE APPROACHING STORM.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
NEARLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN...BUT FORTUNATELY...NO FLOODING HAS YET
BEEN OBSERVED. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO
CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

NO FLOOD...OR SEVERE WEATHER...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND
ISSUE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AS NECESSARY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION...OR CAB;LE TELEVISION FOR LATER
STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

BURRUS