Tornado Warning 15, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
352 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2001

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.  FORECASTING THE STORMS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.  WILLi HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AS WELL.  ZONES ALREADY OUT.  WILL UPDATE THE ZONES
AS THE AXIS OF STORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

.GRR...NONE.

MJS

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-221100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1237 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS ALONG THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH
OF RAIN.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...THE REGION IS NO LONGER IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER.

RIVER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ARE RUNNING HIGH
DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN.  PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON INDIVIDUAL
FORECAST POINTS ALONG THE RIVERS.  THE RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WERE LIMITING  THE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD IN SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.  THUS...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON THAN EARLIER FORECASTED.
THIS FRONT WILL COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.  THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND TO KEEP THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING... BUT
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  EVEN SO... LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MJS

...UPDATED TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA
THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-220100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OCEANA...MUSKEGON AND NEWAYGO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM...CLINTON...IONIA AND EATON

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...OTTAWA...BARRY AND ALLEGAN

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     GRATIOT...MONTCALM...MECOSTA AND ISABELLA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU
LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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