Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 PM EDT MON APR 23 2001

FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH FIRST 5 PERIODS INCLUDE POPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH STRONG CONVECTIVE AND NONCONVECTIVE WINDS THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS TEMPS IN THE STRONG CAA TONIGHT/TUE AND HOW COLD THE MINS
WILL GET WED MORNING. FIRST BATCH OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSRA
MOVING THROUGH GRR FA ATTM. ANOTHER AREA OF LINEAR CONVECTION OVER
NE ILLINOIS ABOUT TO ENTER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MOVING NE. DEW
POINTS STILL AROUND 60 ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH THE RAIN HAS BROUGHT
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAPID MIDLEVEL
DRYING THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT. THE ONLY REAL
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE LOWER LEVEL LIFT ASSOC
WITH FRONT...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS RATHER WEAK. FRONT COMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT MIXING DOWN
RATHER STRONG WINDS. LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER IOWA...SEE MANY AREAS GUSTING OVER 30 KTS. WILL MENTION
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40...JUST BELOW ADV
CRITERIA. TEMPS WILL TAKE A QUICK TUMBLE AS WELL...WITH
MID-AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S SEEN ACROSS IOWA. OTHER
QUESTION IS FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT. DEEPEST MOISTURE
MOVES TO THE NORTH OF GRR CWA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES MAY
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA... WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

CAA CONTINUES INTO TUE MORNING WITH AXIS OF 850 THERMAL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS THROUGH AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE A A GOOD CU DECK WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MAXES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 50. SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN TUE
NIGHT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING MOST PLACES. FWC TEMPS OF MID 20S IN LAN TUE NIGHT.

OSTUNO

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A WARMING
TREND.  MODELS SHOW WARM BUT DRY AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.  THE AVN TRENDED WARMER
THAN THE MRF FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT
THE EUROPEAN SUGGESTS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH.  WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED...AND
FEATURE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.  IF THE EUROPEAN VERIFIES...MAY NOT
GET AS WARM AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF...DEEP MOISTURE IS CUT OFF.  ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE BRIEF. WITHOUT ANY STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISMS AND A LACK OF
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

MJS

.GRR...NONE.

MIZ067-074-240200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
435 PM EDT MON APR 23 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM AND JACKSON

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TRH