Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
445 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

RUNNING A LITTLE SHORT ON TIME THIS MORNING...SO WILL LIMIT DISCUSSION
TO ONLY TODAY/TONIGHT PARTS OF THE FCST. OBVIOUS CONCERN IS SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL.

A LARGE MCS OVER S WI WAS SHIFTING EAST...POSING MAINLY A HVY RAINFALL
THREAT THERE. TWO OTHER MCS'S WERE NOTED UPSTREAM...ONE OVER CNTRL MN
ALONG THE H8 WARM FRONT...AND ANOTHER MOVG THROUGH EASTERN SD. PROFILER
DATA SHOWS A 55-60 KT LLJ FEEDING INTO EASTERN NEB/NW IA...WHERE CAP
WAS HOLDING. EXPECT THE LLJ TO PUNCH INTO S MN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE EASTERN SD MCS. WOULD EXPECT
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD CNTRL/NORTHERN WI
THIS MORNING...RIDING THE STG BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
STG SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY POINT TOWARD A PSBL SIGNIFICANT
SVR WX EVENT ACROSS GRB CWA. HAVE PLACED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR
N CWA...WITH LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS WI...WITH THE CAP LIKELY MAKING
IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO BASED ON
EXPECTED POSN OF FRONT...AND TO BETTER MATCH THE VERY WARM FCST TEMPS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CAP MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF GRB CWA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO...MAIN DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH
INTO ONTARIO THIS EVG. MODELS AREN'T GENERATING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF QPF ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL
OF A MAJOR SVR EVENT THIS EVG...WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF NC WI...
WHICH MAY NOT GET CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
THAT WILL BE PRESENT AND THE VERY STG WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WOULD BE HARD PRESSED NOT TO KEEP A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS
AND PSBL SVR WX IN THE FCST. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL THINK THE BEST
ACTION WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY.

COORD WITH ARX AND SPC...THANKS.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-181500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY...LIKELY REACHING
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TODAY. THE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE
PRESENT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...
A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BRIEFLY
SUPPRESS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BREAK THIS CAP...TRIGGERING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN
ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KIECKBUSCH
W'WW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB