Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

MAIN CHALLENGE TNT IS DESCRIPTION OF SHRA/TSRAS ACRS THE CWA.  VORT
CONTS TO SPIN TWD CENTRL WI THIS AFTN.  SHRAS/TSRAS HAVE BROKEN OUT IN
BAND OF HIGHER RH OVER MN INTO NW WI...BUT WERE DEVELOPING SWD ALSO.
AT THIS TIME WILL PROB HAVE OCNL WRDG NORTH AND SCT SOUTH.  PERSISTENT
BAND OF SHRA/TSRAS CONT TO EXTEND BACK INTO ND IN RIBBON OF HIGHER RH.
THIS BAND PROGGED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO BLDG UPR HEIGHTS.
WILL CONT TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY AT THIS TIME.

NEXT BEST CHC OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHG SYSTEM AND WAA. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION.  COULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE PCPN
FOR EARLY MONDAY BEFORE CDFNT SWEEPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL
KEEP POPS CHCS GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCERTAINTY WITH
LINGERING BOUDARIES AS WELL AS CDFNT TIMING.  MODELS SAG THIS LATER
FRONT INTO NRN IL FOR TUESDAY...SO WL GO DRY.

GUID TEMPS HAVE CAUGHT UP TO THE WARMER TREND AND GEN ACCEPTED.

.GRB...NONE.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-161900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DUE TO ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.
HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS EVENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-161900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DUE TO ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES.
HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS EVENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0501 PM    BROKAW                    WI   1 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   MARATHON                       REPORTED BY WEATHER SPOTTER

APK

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-170000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY TO KEWAUNEE...OR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE A BIT WEAKER.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL END AROUND SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
GENERATING THE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY THAT TIME.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS EVENING SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB