Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2001

RATHER ZONAL BUT PROGRESSIVE UPR PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
PATTERN SHOULD UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
TROF DEEPENING OVER THE ERN STATES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES.
MODELS NOW SHOW WRN RIDGE FLATTENING MORE QUICKLY...WITH A SIG SHRTWV
BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND HEADING ACRS THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT
WK.

SW FLOW HAS ADVECTED MOISTURE NWD TOWARD THE RGN...AND SET THE STAGE FOR
A ROUND OF SIG CONVECTION TNGT AS UPR JET AND MID-LVL SHRTWV HEAD E INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RGN. ETA/AVN QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE HANDLING OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AVN FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MN...WHILE THE
ETA KEYS ON SRN MN. 18Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ATM FM IA SWD IS STRONGLY
CAPPED...SO CONVECTION LIKELY TO FOCUS N OF SFC BOUNDARY NR IA/MN
BORDER. EXPECT THAT AREA OF CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND MV EWD ACRS MY FCST
AREA TNGT. THE SWRN PART OF MY FCST AREA WOULD SEEM TO HV THE BEST CHC
OF GETTING SIG PCPN AND POSSIBLY A SVR STORM. HOWEVER...WITH BEST
FORCING FOCUSED WEST OF MY FCST AREA...WL FOREGO MENTIONING SVR
EXPLICITLY IN THE ZONES.

EXPECT REMNANTS OF TSTM COMPLEX TO SHIFT SE OF MY FCST AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SFC COLD FRONT WL STILL BE CROSSING MY FCST AREA TOMORROW...SO
WL KEEP CHC OF TSTMS GOING. HOWEVER...FEELING IS THAT MAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WL OCCUR S OF MY FCST AREA IN ASSOC WITH
BOUNDARY LIKELY LEFT BEHIND FROM TNGTS STORMS. ETA SEEMS TO BE HINTING
AT THIS WITH ITS QPF MAX ACRS NRN IL TOMORROW AFTN.

MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST PCPN WITH BOUNDARY COULD STILL AFFECT THE SRN/ERN
PART OF MY FCST AREA TOMORROW NGT. THE N WL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH FROM
THE BOUNDARY TO STAY DRY.

EXPECT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WX FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA. GUID TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL. THINK WE WOULD NEED TO STAY CLOUDY
ALL DAY TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. WITH RH DECR...EXPECT SOME SUN...
AND WENT WITH MAX TEMPS A BIT ABV GUID.

STRENGTHENING NW FLOW DUE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPR PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MODELS4 WAS
THAT SIG SHRTWV WL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND AFFECT MY FCST AREA EARLY
NEXT WK. AS A RESULT...ADDED A CHC OF SHOWERS FOR TUE/WED.

COORD WITH MQT.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-091700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL...NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
OSHKOSH TO GREEN BAY TO MARINETTE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING IN WESTERN SECTIONS AND LATE EVENING IN EASTERN SECTIONS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST AS STORMS START TO DEVELOP.

AUSTIN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-100800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2001

...STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND EXTREME NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 TO 55 MPH WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH 3:00 AM.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FROM RHINELANDER EAST THROUGH THREE LAKES...HILES...
LONG LAKE AND TIPLER.  THESE WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS OR
SMALL TREES...AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.  DRIVING WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT.
AT ANY ONE LOCATION...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LAST 30 TO 45 MINUTES...
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED AS HIGH AS 55 MPH IN
RHINELANDER.

THE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A STRONG SMALL-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANYONE CAMPING OR TRAVELING IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS.

KENNEDY
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB