Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
930 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
ARE THREE POSSIBLE SIG WEATHER THREATS POSED BY THE SYSTEM. NONE IS
CLEAR CUT...BUT ANY ONE COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

THE FIRST THREAT IS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WL MV ACRS THE AREA
TNGT. EXPANDING MCS LIFTING TOWARD THE AREA FM IA/MN. STRONGEST
CONVECTION ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN MOVG MORE E...BUT IT
COULD STILL AFFECT THE SRN PART OF MY FCST AREA. WITH LLJ FCST TO
STRENGTHEN AND VERY WARM MOIST FLOWING INTO THE RGN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SVR WINDS FM NRN IA.
INCR ELY WIND AND STG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WL MINIMIZE THREAT OF SVR
CONVECTIVE GUSTS OVER MY FCST AREA TNGT...BUT WL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LG HAIL LATER TNGT.

SECOND THREAT IS SVR POTENTIAL TOMORROW. MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTION WL
LIFT N OF MY FCST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. 18Z ETA PROGS SFC TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SE PART OF MY FCST AREA...WITH CAPES OF
NEARLY 2000 J/KG AND 0-3KM HELICITIES ARND 400 M2/S2. 00Z ETA HAS BACKED
DOWN SOME...AND IS NOT QUITE AS OMINOUS. NOT SURE IF STORMS WL BE ABLE
TO FORM BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FM THE WEST...BUT IF THEY DO THEY WL
LIKELY BECOME SVR.

THIRD THREAT IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STG WINDS IN THE DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTN/EVE. ETA PROGS 65 KT WINDS ARND 750 MB...
AND ITS FCST SOUNDING IS DRY ADIABATIC FM THERE DOWN TO THE SFC. SE WI
APPEARS TO BE MOST AT RISK OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CRITERIA REACHED IN E-C WI AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WL LEAVE WIND ADV GO AND ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL
DECISION. DID EXPAND ADVISORY INTO DOOR COUNTY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY
QUITE WINDY.

UPDATED ZONES...WIND ADVISORY...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

COORD W MKE.

.GRB...WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
       WIZ022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-061900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH BY THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RISE UP AND OVER THE COOL AIR NEAR THE GROUND. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

IT IS THOUGHT THAT STABLE AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL PREVENT STRONG WINDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE THE AIR MORE UNSTABLE...AND
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS REACHING THE GROUND. HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE PROSPECT OF
LARGE HAIL SEEMS SMALL AT THE PRESENT TIME.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEED THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THEY COULD BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-070900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
935 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE
SEVERAL WEATHER HAZARDS.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. SINCE MANY AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL...
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME RIVER FLOODING.

THE INITIAL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL THEN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM HEADS FOR MINNESOTA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.

FINALLY...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF WISCONSIN IS MOST AT RISK
OF EXPERIENCING DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DAMAGING WINDS COULD
EXTEND INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST AND STATEMENTS AS THIS COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE TRANQIL WEATHER RETURNING SUNDAY.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB