Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2001

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTH WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION.

THERE IS NO CLEARLY PREFERRED MODEL SINCE EACH HAS A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING. THE NGM HAS A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE ETA IS THE
DEEPEST. THE AVN IS THE SLOWER MODEL WITH THE ETA BEING THE FASTEST.
OVERALL...A STRONGER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FEATURES IS
PREFERRED...AS HAS BEEN THE OVERALL TREND OF THE MODELS SINCE
YESTERDAYS RUN.  WILL MIX AND MATCH GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO FAVOR A
SLOWER AND DEEPER UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MID WEEK.

MODELS KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
DRYING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL KEEP
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BECOMING SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARM UP AGAIN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A S/WV EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA...FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND MRF IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.GLD...NONE.

LOCKHART

COZ091-092-290800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 2 AM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THE COUNTIES
INCLUDED ARE KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF OUTSIDE...MOVE
TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. ALSO...REMEMBER
THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RJC

COZ091-092-290830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2001

THUNDERSTORMS HAD DECREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BULLER