Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 AM MDT SUN APR 22 2001

MAJOR CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND 500 MB LOW EJECTS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE QUESTIONS FOR THE GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA ARE...1) WILL TEMPERATURES DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW...
2) WILL WINDS MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA...3) WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

PREFER THE ETA/AVN FOR THIS RUN...THOUGH NGM IS BECOMING MORE IN
LINE. BASED ON ETA...850-700 MB THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1530 METERS
ACROSS YUMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THAT AREA AND WINDS WILL BE HOWLING. WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THICKNESSES WILL NOT DROP INTO THE
SNOW CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
THEN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...AND THIS WILL BRING THE
EASTERN AREAS STRONG WINDS. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
CWA TODAY.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...BUT JUST BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 18Z BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. WITH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY/DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. MODEL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS. THE
ONLY CONCERN TO THIS SCENARIO IS THAT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ROBS
ENERGY AND/OR PRODUCES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS MUCH DYNAMICS...
HOWEVER...WOULD PLACE MY BETS ON SEVERE STORMS.

.GLD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE MORN/AFTN COLORADO ZONE 90
       WIND ADVISORY TODAY COLORADO ZONES 91..92
       WIND ADVISORY TODAY NEBRASKA ZONES 79..80..81
       WIND ADVISORY TODAY KANSAS ZONES 1>4..13>16..27>29..41>42
MENTZER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2001

...A STRONG SPRING STORM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE
TRI-STATE AREA...

A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WILL
DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING A VARIETY OF SPRING WEATHER WITH
IT...RANGING FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO COLD RAIN TO SNOW.  A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE LOW
CAUSING WINDS TO RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
MUCH STRONGER GUSTS LIKELY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...
AND SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  IN EASTERN
COLORADO RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE DAY.  THE COMBINATION
OF SNOW AND STRONG NORTH WINDS MAY CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
AND MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.  HEAVIER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FROM EAST
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE COMMERCIAL
SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION AS THIS STRONG SPRING STORM APPROACHES.

ENTWISTLE

KSZ015-016-029-220800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MDT SAT APR 21 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 166 IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 3 AM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SHERIDAN...GOVE AND GRAHAM.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THESE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.

AGAIN...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. REMAIN CALM BUT BEK ALERT
IF YOU EXPERIENCE RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

KPL

KSZ015-016-029-220800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 AM MDT SUN APR 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 166 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH THUNDERPSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ENTWISTLE