Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MDT THU SEP 13 2001

THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH ALL PARAMETERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP AS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS
HAVE PLAGUED ALL OF THEM. ETA PRETTY MUCH MISSED ACTIVITY ONGOING IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...PLUS IT MISSED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NGM ALSO IS TOO DRY WITH LOW LEVELS AND
SHOWS ITS CUSTOMARY NORTHERN BIAS WITH SURFACE LOW IN THE LATER
PERIODS. THIS LEAVES THE AVN...WHICH ALSO HAS ITS PROBLEMS...BUT IS
AT LEAST SHOWING SOME DECENT CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. IT ALSO
CAUGHT THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS...
THOUGH IT REMAINS TOO COOL ON SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

IN THE FIRST PERIOD...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL INITIALLY BE WITH
CONVECTIVE FORECASTING. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS RUNS FROM GRAHAM
COUNTY KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...THOUGH
WEAK...WILL INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS PLUS WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
WEAK CONVECTION HAS JUST DEVELOPED ALONG DRY LINE IN EASTERN
COLORADO. WILL INDICATE THE BEST THREAT IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
ACROSS YUMA COUNTY COLORADO NEAR DRY LINE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER...AND THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION. FINALLY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...
STRATUS WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE SECOND PERIOD...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE FORECAST. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLIGHTLY SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AS MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...DYNAMICS...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMPLICATING
THINGS...HOWEVER...WILL BE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS. IF LOW CLOUDS ARE
STUBBORN AND DO NOT CLEAR AS EXPECTED...AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST.

LATER PERIODS...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER MONTANA SATURDAY WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THOSE
TIMES. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL.

EXTENDED PORTION...MRF SHOWS UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH DAY 6. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW IS DUE TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS BEHIND TROUGH.

.GLD...NONE
MENTZER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-140600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT THU SEP 13 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER
THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS
A DRY LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A HILL CITY TO COLBY TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

ON FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TO ACT ON THIS AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

BULLER