Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2001

CHALLENGES ARE EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIP AND TEMPS THRU SAT AM.

UPPER LOW THAT WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR FORMED DURING NIGHT.
AT 12Z WAS OVER CENTRAL ID. NOW IS JUST NORTH OF GREAT SALT LAKE AND
MOVING STEADILY SE. PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WCEN CO BY FRI/12Z THEN TO
NE KS AS AN OPEN WAVE BY SAT/12Z. SIMILARITY BETWEEN ALL MODELS BUT
FELT NGM WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER ON HT AND POSITIONING AT INITIALIZATION
OF ABOVE NOTED LOW AND DRYING S/W LOCATED FROM NC TX INTO CEN NEB.
ALSO NGM SEEMS TO BE MORE OF MIDDLE GROUND MODEL BETWEEN DEEPER AVN
AND LESSER ETA. WILL GO WITH NGM IN NEAR TERM AND AVN LATER ON.

LOTS OF HEAT THIS PM (INTO 90S EVERYWHERE) AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FOR NIGHTTIME PASSAGE. ALSO DRYLINE NEAR CO/KS BORDER AND
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY MUCH. ACCORDINGLY AM GOING WITH TSRAS OVER
AREA TONIGHT (50 -60 POPS) AND EXPECT SEVERAL TO TURN SEVERE DURING
EARLY EVENING. FRONT TO ENTER KS AREA BY 9 PM AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
CWA DURING NIGHT. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE IN WITH AND BEHIND
FRONT. TSRAS CHANCES EARLY AND AGAIN WITH AND SHORTLY BEHIND FRONT
ARE BEST. TEMPS THROUGHOUT FCST PD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUID.
WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND BECOMING WINDY BEHIND FRONT.

FRI MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDY NORTH
WINDS AND MODERATE POPS WITH SHOWERS BEING PREDOMINANT VEHICLE AS
AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY STABLE. FRI NIGHT LATE ANOTHER/SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES IN FROM NORTH BASICALLY REINFORCING COLD/COOL AIR FOR
SAT. PRECIP CHANGES TO MORE STABLE LIGHT RAIN TYPE AND HANGS ON INTO
SAT AM. LOWS DROP INTO 40S TO LOW 50S. CONTINUED BREEZY WITH SOME
INCREASE TO WINDY LATE IN NORTHERN AREAS AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

SAT SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM NORTH AS DAY PROGRESSES. RAIN
MOSTLY OVER DURING THE MORNING/EARLY PM TIMES. WINDY FROM NORTH
EARLY WITH SOME DECREASE IN WIND DURING PM AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
WIND ADVISORY EARLY MORNING BEHIND SECOND FRONT NOT OUT OF QUESTION
AS JET MAX MOVES SE OVERHEAD CAUSING UNKNOWN AMT OF SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT. LOWEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT SUN AM WITH SEASONS FIRST DIP INTO
THE 30S LIKELY AS CLEARING AND CALMING OCCURS.

SUN RIDGE BEGINS SLOW RETURN FROM SW. TEMPS WARM INTO UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S SUN. THEN INTO REMAINDER OF EXTENDED INTO MIDWEEK TEMPS WARM
SLOWLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY DAYS AND NIGHTS
THROUGHOUT. REGARDLESS THINK THIS STORM COULD EASILY BE LABELED AS
AT LEAST THE END OF SUMMER AS JET STREAM REENTERS NORTHERN AND CEN
STATES.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC