Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT SAT APR 14 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE MONDAY.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...IGNITING SEVERE TRW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
PLACE TO OUR WEST. THIS AMPLIFICATION WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...COOLING
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN COMPARED TO NORMAL AND THE LAST FEW
WEEKS. IN FACT...SOME SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...MORE
ON THAT BELOW. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA MORE HEAVILY THIS PACKAGE...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION...AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND LIMITED
PRECIP GIVEN ITS MUCH BETTER LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION. THE AVN ISNT ALL
THAT FAR BEHIND...ESP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS MON WHEN COMPARED TO
THE NGM.

TON AND SUN...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO
WILL KEEP IT SHORT. IN GENERAL...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
LATE SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY 35 TO 40 WITH HIGHS SUN NEAR 65.

SUN NGT AND MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z TUE MORN
WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...APPROACHING
95-100%. WILL ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO ALL ZONES AND CONFINE ANY
PRECIP MENTION (RAIN) TO THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA
AS PROGGED BY ETA PRECIP AND STRONGEST 700-500 OMEGA WHEN A
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. FOR MONDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
BUT DOWNWARD FORCING WOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE 850 TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
ZERO. LOWS 35 TO 40 WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST...RISING
TO NEAR 50 OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL FALL
SOME DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN.

MON NGT...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EASTERN CWA BUT
REMAINED ENTRENCHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SOME LIFT NOTED
ON THE 700-500 OMEGA FIELDS SUGGESTING SOME LOW POPS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND LIFT IS
GREATER. WILL GO WITH MAV GUIDANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE COLDEST OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED. WILL
GO 25 TO 30 THERE WITH AROUND 30 SOUTHWEST CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. SOME DISAGREEMENT ARISES ON FRIDAY WITH LARGE SCALE DETAILS
BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES A BIT OVER THE WEST COAST
SHIFTING THE FLOW PATTERN TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. 12Z AVN KEEPS
CURRENT THINKING OF 00Z MRF IN PUSHING A LEE TROUGH TOWARD THE CO/KS
BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO LOW TO
WARRANT POPS SO ILL REMOVE THEM. SURFACE FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK EAST
THURSDAY WITH ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE TRW FROM FORECAST AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS DRY.

.GLD...NONE.

THEDE