Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT TUE AUG 21 2001

CHALLENGES ARE HIGH TEMPS WED AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WED NIGHT AND
THU.

MODELS WERE ALL VERY SIMILAR THIS AM...BUT I DID NOT LIKE ANY OF
THEM. AT INITIALIZATION NONE OF THEM SEEMED TO DEPICT S/WS VERY WELL
WRT TO HTS OR WV/IR CHAN. THEY DO ALL GENERALLY DEPICT A STRONGER
S/W TO AFFECT MID AND NRN HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT AND THU...BUT THEY
VARY CONSIDERABLY WRT TO SIG DETAILS. ALL HOWEVER ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH RESPECT TO TEMP FIELDS. WILL GO GENERALLY WITH ETA BECAUSE OF
FINER GRID...BUT ACTUALLY A GREAT DEAL OF BLEND.

50H RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH AXIS NOW OVER
EAST KS ORIENTED NNE INTO MN. HTS OVER W KS...W NEB AND E CO HAVE
DROPPED BETWEEN 40-50 MTS IN LAST 24 HRS. ALSO MOISTURE IN MID AND
UPPER LEVELS HAS INCREASED AS NOTED ON WV/IR. LOW LEVEL MOIST STILL
LOW BUT WILL INC SLOWLY IN NEXT 24 HRS. MODELS SHOW WEAK COLD (COOL)
FRONT TO DRIFT INTO MY AREA WED FROM NORTH AND REMAIN IN AREA INTO
THU. THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE/DEPART TO NE. MODERATELY STRONG UPPER S/W
BRINGS UVV CENTER(S) TO E CO WED PM AND MOVES SLOWLY ENE OVER 18 HR
PD. FCST BASED ON THIS SCENARIO.

TONIGHT WEAK S/W/VORT COMES OUT OF E CO AND CROSSES MY CWA DURING
EVENING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO ENABLE SOME
TSRAS TO GET GOING...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AS ATMOS HAS
DESTABILIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AS CAA AT UPPER LEVELS HAS OCCURRED
ALONG WITH INCREASE OF MOIST. HAVE GONE WITH 20-30 POPS MOST
EVERYWHERE. WOULD GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN EAST BUT THERE RIDGE BEGINS
TO DAMPEN SITUATION.

AS NOTED ON WED WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREA ALONG WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. AFOREMENTED STRONGER S/W MOVES IN FROM WSW LATE IN DAY.
HAVE GONE WITH INC CLDS OVER ALL AREA WITH TSRAS STARTING LATE IN
DAY IN W AND N. HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN 80S IN MUCH OF CWA BECAUSE
OF BOUNDARY AND INC IN CLDS...EXCEPT MID 90S IN E WHERE CLDS COME
LATE. POPS TO 40 LATE IN DAY IN W AND TO 20 BY VERY LATE IN E.

WED NIGHT CLDY ALMOST EVERYWHERE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 50 IN
EXTREME SE NEB TO 40/30 ELSEWHERE AS S/W SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS CWA.
LOWS IN 60S.

THU TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS CLDS REMAIN AND DECREASE SLOWLY FROM W
TO E. S/W MOVES OUT SLOWLY TO E. HIGHS IN 80S. SOME MOIST REMAINS SO
CHANCE/SLIGHT OF PM AND EARLY EVEN TSRAS. SLOW CLEARING THU NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO FRI.

IN EXTENDED MRF AND ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. HAVE CHANGED
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY BY NOTING FRI DRY AS RESULT OF DEPARTED S/W. THEN
RETURN OF CH TSRAS THROUGH MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS AND NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. HAVE ADDED TUE DRY AS INDICATIONS RIDGE BEGINS TO
REBUILD IN WEST.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT TUE AUG 21 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0736 PM    BIRD CITY ARPT            KS   66 MPH TSTM GUST
08/20/01   CHEYENNE                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.