Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2001

AVN IS INITIALIZING SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH H7 AND H85 TEMPS. OTHERWISE
ETA IS TRACKING FEATURES SLIGHTLY BETTER OUT TO 18Z. AS MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WILL GO WITH AN ETA AVN BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

PRESSURE TENDENCY ARE SHOWING TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE EAST OF
REGION. BEST PVA WILL BE IN EASTERN CWA BY 0Z AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF TS IN THE EAST. TOMORROW IN TO TOMORROW NIGHT RIDGE NUDGES OVER
AREA AND WITH H7 DPS WELL BELOW -7 WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR
THESE PERIODS...AND GO NEAR GUIDANCE ON HIGHS. ON SUNDAY GULF
MOISTURE BEGINS A RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT AGAIN MID LEVELS REMAIN
TOO DRY A RIDGE INTENSIFIES OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7 TEMPS SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S...BUT WITH MOIST SE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPS
DOWN A BIT.

IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH FEEL THE MRF IS TOO FAST WITH FLATTENING THIS
FEATURE AND PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION HERE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. AM DISCARDING THE ECMWF AFTER THAT AS I AM DUBIOUS OF THE PAC
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE THE REST OF THE MODEL AS WELL AFTER THIS
PERIOD. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW OVER FLATTENED RIDGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...PATTERN SETS UP FOR NUMEROUS SW PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. TIMING OF THESE FEATURE
THIS FAR OUT IN THIS PATTERN IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY AND WILL
BROAD BRUSH FROM WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-180600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT FRI AUG 17 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

BY LATE TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER PRIOR TO THIS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE
EASTERN AREAS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS ALREADY DECREASING IN THE AREA THERE REMAINS
SOME CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE IN
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE AREA WHERE
CONDITIONS BEST FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALBEIT SLIGHT...
IS EAST OF A LINE FROM CULBERTSON NEBRASKA TO OBERLIN TO HOXIE TO
GOVE KANSAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH MAY BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER CONDITIONS
GENERALLY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE.

RJC