Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CHANCE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP THIS
EVENING.

BASED UPON SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION AND BETTER TRACKING OF
MOISTURE OUT TO 18Z...WILL GO WITH THE AVN FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BLENDING WITH THE ETA LATER FOR REASONS GIVEN BELOW.

TONIGHT GOOD LLVL MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES AHEAD OF SW AND BOUNDARY
PASSAGE LATER BY MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG BL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND SOME RRJ ACTION WILL RESULT IN BROAD UVV AND WILL GO
WELL ABOVE FWC ON POPS AS TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WIND ENVIRONMENT AS LENTICULARS SPREADING
OUT FROM THE FRONT RANGE AS FAR EAST AS OVERHEAD HERE AT GLD ARE
INDICATING STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH CURRENT LLVL
JET ARE INDICATING A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...CURRENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS IN FIRST PERIOD WORDING. TOMORROW MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN WITH
N WINDS BEHIND BOUNDARY/FROPA. THINK THAT THE AVN IS MOVING IN TOO
COOL AIR ALOFT...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR FOR QPF GENERATED BY THE AVN
TOMORROW AT 0Z. WILL GO WITH ETA SUPPORTED TEMPS AND KEEPS JUST A
SILENT 10 FOR POPS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED... MRF AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT FOR MOST
OF THE EXTENDED. FLATTENED RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS INTO WESTERN CONUS
BY SATURDAY...WITH SW ROUNDING OVER THE TOP INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING BUILDS
AGAIN INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BEING CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY.
WILL GO ABOVE THE WARMER FMR HIGHS AS RIDGING PATTERN DOES NOT
SUPPORT THE COOLER MEX TEMPS AND WARMER ECMWF TEMPS SEEM MORE
REASONABLE.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-150300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ATTENTION EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA...

DUE TO EMERGENCY RADAR REPAIRS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GOODLAND KANSAS IS REQUESTING THAT ALL SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...BE EXTREMELY VIGILANT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN YOUR AREA
PROMPTLY...SITING LOCATION...MOVEMENT...AND INTENSITY IF POSSIBLE.
TIMELY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS AND RAINFALL INFORMATION IS PARAMOUNT.
ALSO...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER AS
WELL AS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.

TABER/DORN

KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-150300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

THE COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS INCLUDE CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...
DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM. THE
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED
WILLOW.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO NOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WATCH AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE WINDS GREATER THAN 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

TABER