Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1217 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2001

MAIN QUESTION THIS PACKAGE IS POPS FOR TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE WEST AND CUTTING OFF DEEP MOISTURE AND BULK OF DYNAMICS FROM FA.
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ATTM IS PROGGED BY 12Z
ETA TO IMPACT NE CO LATE TONIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE ALREADY
LESSENING AS EVENING COOLS.

COOL FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH FA ATTM AND MAY BE AVAILABLE TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 15Z
RUC SUGGESTS THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO ONSET OF DYNAMIC LIFT LATE TONIGHT...WHILE 12Z
AVN AND ETA SUGGEST THAT CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THERE WONT BE
A CHANCE OF TSTMS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS.

EITHER WAY...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR
TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG NORTH AND WEST AS BEST
DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT THOSE ZONES LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST ZONES
ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP PROPAGATING SOUTHWEST ALONG
COOL FRONT FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED FURTHER NORTHEAST. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED CENTRAL WITH BOUNDARY IN PLACE...AND WILL GO
ISOLATED IN FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS FURTHER NORTH COULD GET THINGS STARTED.

FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT AS 500 MB
RIDGE BUILDS INTO FA. WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE
HIGH AND ANY COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS CUT OFF WELL TO NORTH...WILL GO
DRY THROUGH EXTENDED.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO FA LATE AIN EXTENDED...BUT HARD TO JUDGE OR TIME AT THIS POINT
SO WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH PERIOD GIVEN STRENGTH OF
RIDGE AND 850 TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

.GLD...NONE.

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI STATE REGION
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE GENERALLY NORTH
OF A NORTON TO SAINT FRANCIS KANSAS TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE.

LAMMERS