Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD HIGHLIGHT AT BOTTOM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT TUE APR 10 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE NUMEROUS.

UPR LOW OVR SW CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT IS STARTING TO TURN THE CORNER.
ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE NW CONUS. SFC LOW IS
DEEPENING/DEVELOPING NEAR SE CO WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR SRN
EDGE OF CWFA. BASED ON BETTER INITIAL ANALYSIS...TRENDS THROUGH SIX
HOURS...AND SATL...WL GO WITH THE ETA OVERALL...AND BLEND IN THE
AVN. AT 50H...MODELS ARE NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH WITH SW CONUS SYSTEM
WITH AVN CLOSEST. AVN LOOKS TO HAVE MSTR NR 50H THE BEST AS WELL.
MODELS TOO DRY AT 70H WITH AVN THE BEST.

FOR TON...LFQ IN AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CONVECTION COULD PLAY A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT ROLES. FIRST TSRA TO SOUTH AND EAST COULD ROB US
OF DEEPER MSTR. THIS COULD ESPECIALLY BE IMPORTANT FOR NW PTN OF
CWFA THAT SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ALSO TSRA OVER US COULD
COOL NW PTN OF CWFA OFF SOONER SO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WL BE GREATER/SOONER. UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS ERN CO BUT
AMS NOT SATURATED. IN FACT...MODELS INDICATE A DRY SLOT MOVG INTO
THE SRN CWFA DURG THE NIGHT. BASED ON ALL FACTORS...WL JUST HAVE
PCPN BCMG ALL SNOW IN NW PTN OF CWFA...1-3 INCHES...WITH A MIX A
LTL FURTHER WEST. WITH WARM GROUND...DO NOT EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO
BE A PROBLEM.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT BEST CHC OF SVR OVR SE PTN. AS
MENTIONED ABV...AFT TSRA ENDS THIS AREA WL GET DRY SLOTTED. EVEN
WITH UPR LOW GETTING CLOSE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION OVR REST OF CWFA DURG THE NIGHT. FOR WED...WL BE IN WRAP
ARND/INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE DAY...AND THEN SHOULD
START GETTING STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA AFTER THAT. COMBINING THAT WITH
GOOD LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SEE WND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVR ENTIRE CWFA.
ETA 85H WINDS HAVE AT LEAST 40 KTS WITH NORMALLY WEAK ETA SFC WNDS
GETTING UP TO 30 TO 35 KTS. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER THAT.

WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WL LOOK AT TRENDS BEFORE
ISSUE TO MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOK TO GO ABV TON...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING...SOME
DOWNSLOPE...AND CAA FOR WED. WL TEND TO GO NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV
GUIDANCE. GET RETURN FLOW ON THU WITH SOME CLD COVER. WL AGAIN GO NR
TO SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THROUGH 12Z THIS MRNG MODELS WHERE DOING WELL AND
NOT TO DIFFERENT. SATL SHOWG A STRONG SYSTEM MOVG TWD THE GULF OF
AK. THIS SYSTEM PUMPING UP RIDGE ALONG WCST. AVN/UK/EC ARE STRONGEST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THAT LOOKS MORE CORRECT. THIS PAC SYSTEM/JET
WL CAUSE SYSTEM OVR WRN CAN TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS THEN
WANT TO OPEN/WASH OUT THIS SYSTEM...AND RACE IT ACROSS US ON FRI.
ALSO HAVE RRQ OF JET NEAR US ON FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

THEN HEIGHTS RISE A LTL AS 50H RDG DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS NEXT
SYSTEM DIGS ALONG WCST. THEN SUN...EC IS A LTL MORE AGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING SYSTEM IN FM CNTRL CAN...FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW AND RIDGING
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. BASED ON SATL...JET PROGS...AND
TRENDS...LIKE THE EC/UK SOLN OF LOWER HEIGHTS/SLOWER KICKING OUT OF
SYSTEM ON FRI. HWVR EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE
UPSTREAM...THINK EC MAY BE OVERDOING STRENGTH OF SYSTEM ON SUN.

BASE THIS ON UPSTREAM SYSTEM OFF OF WCST THAT SHOULD THROW HEIGHTS
UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE CAN SYSTEM TO MOVE FURTHER EAST. SO WL PUT IN A
CHC OF RAIN/TSRA ON FRI WITH REST LOOKG DRY. WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT...
SHOULD HAVE ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURG THIS TIME.

.GLD...WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

BULLER