Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT MON JUL 30 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCE OF TSRA TONIGHT AND FRONTAL
TIMING/POSITIONS AFFECT ON TEMPS/TSRA CHANCE SECOND THROUGH FOURTH
PERIODS.

LEE TROF/DRYLINE OVER ERN CO. SATL SHOWS ONE S/W NEAR CWFA AT THIS
TIME WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SYSTEM DIGGING ALONG NW CONUS WITH LOCATED TO NORTH OF AREA. BASED
ON INITIAL ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...WL PREFER A BLEND OF THE
ETA/AVN. MORE WEIGHT WL BE GIVEN TO THE AVN ALOFT AND TO THE ETA AT
THE BOTTOM.

FOR TON...NO JET DYNAMICS. NVA/DRYING BY S/W CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH.
VORT MAX CURRENTLY TO OUR S/W IS BROUGHT INTO AREA WITH BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS OVR WRN HALF. PROBLEM IS MODELS SAY WE HAVE VERY WARM/DRY
AIR AT 50H WITH TEMPS OF -4 TO -5. THE GRADIENT OF MOIST/DRY AIR
LIES OVR CWFA. NOT SURE IF THE DRIER AIR ADVERTISED BY MODELS IS ON
THE UP AND UP SINCE HAVE SW FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH WETTER AIR IS TO THE
SW. DRY LINE JUST TO THE WEST. ETA/AVN...ESPECIALLY WANTS TO DRYLINE
US TONIGHT. TSRA FIRING OFF HIR TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. LOOKS LIKE WEST
HALF WL HAVE THE BEST CHC WITH THE ERN CWFA THE LEAST. VERY WARM
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS/LOW LVL MSTR. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE
ERN CWFA WL HAVE MINS DROP BLO CRITERIA NEEDED FOR HEAT ADVISORY.
SO AT THIS TIME WL NOT ISSUE ONE...BUT BRIEF MID SHIFT ON IT. THANKS
FOR THE CALL GRI.

FOR TUE/TUE NGT...BY LATE AFTN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION APPEARS TO BE
NR SE WY/NCNTRL CO. THIS AREA THEN MOVES NORTH. DECENT S/W MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTN INTO THE NIGHT. MSTR IMPROVES BUT 50H
TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM...AND HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PD. ALTHOUGH THE 70H TEMPS LOOK TO FALL NR 2C FM TODAYS VALUES
WITH VERY MOIST AIR AS WELL. FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CORNER OF CWFA
LATE IN THE AFTN...AND THEN THROUGH MOST OF THE CWFA BY 12Z. WL HAVE
WDLY SCT TO SCT TSRA DVLP AHEAD OF FRONT/NR S/W STARTING IN THE AFTN.
MODELS INITD COOL AT 85...AND WL HAVE GOOD PREFRONTAL WARMING. SO WL
GO ABV MOS FOR MAXES...AND NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV FOR MINS.

FOR WED/WED NGT...HEIGHTS CONT TO RISE WITH 50H MSTR/TEMPS MOST FVBL
TO ALLOW TSRA TO DEVELOP NR NRN PTN CWFA WITH FVBL PARAMETERS
THROUGH 70H OVR REMAINDER OF CWFA. MOIST/UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK ALOFT. WL PUT IN
CHC POPS FOR ENTIRE CWFA FOR WED NGT. BASED ON ETA TEMP
PROGS/UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW...WL GO NR TO SLIGHTLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AS OF 12Z THIS MRNG...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH
WITH SYSTEM DIGGING INTO WRN CONUS. THE TWO BEST MODELS WERE THE
AVN/UKMET WITH THE UKMET THE WINNER. THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN
IS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DEEPER/SLOWER TO KICK OUT. FOR A SHORT TIME
CENTER OF 50H RDG GETS SHOVED INTO ERN CONUS...AND THEN RETROGRADES
AND ELONGATES AS NEXT COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DIG INTO AND MOVE ACROSS NW
CONUS. MODELS SMLR BUT LIKE THE AVN/UKMET A LTL BETTER BASED ON
THEIR CURRENT PERFORMANCE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...
AND WL NOT STRAY FAR FROM. HWVR...WL TEND TWD THE LATER HALF OF THE
PD TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV MYAXES BASED ON UPR LVL RDG POSN.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER