Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2001

QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS WHETHER A LAST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING FLOODING TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO BLO AN INCH OVER MUCH OF
ERN FA TODAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO IMPACT AREA.
PRECIP WATER REMAINS QUITE HIGH OVER THE EAST WITH VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES IN EAST. FAVORABLE LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO 250 MB JET AND
GOOD COOLING AT MID LEVELS BEING PROGGED BY ETA AND AVN MAY ADD FUEL
TO THE MIX.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INHIBITING SURFACE HEATING.

AT 1730Z...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE-SW JUST EAST OF GLD. LAPS DATA
INDICATES THAT CAP HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT
WELL IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. ETA/RUC SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THIS BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...AGREE WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY SINCE THE PROGGED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY COMBINE
WITH STORM OUTFLOW TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BACK INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
MOVE MORE QUICKLY THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA ATTM.

AFTER TONIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN PER AVN...MRF...ECMWF ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM AND GROUND TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT.  850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
REACH 30C+ OVER MUCH OF FA.  WILL GO DRY AND CLOSE TO WARMER FWC
NUMBERS BEGINING TOMORROW.  IN THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP& APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN ENOUGH TO BRING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS COLORADO.

.GLD...NONE.

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
.
0345 PM    12 SSE TRIBUNE            KS   1 INCH HAIL
07/27/01   GREELEY                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....
/
0517 PM    18 NNW LEVANT             KS   TORNADO
07/27/01   RAWLINS                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.