Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED HIGHLIGHT LINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2001

NCEP MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON MCC/MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE LAST 3
NIGHTS. MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS ADVECTED INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE 700 MB DEW POINT AT KLBF AT -14C
THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST OF KTAD. ANTICIPATE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS BY THIS EVENING AS MSAS LIFTED INDICES AROUND -8
NEAR LAMAR AT 18Z. CLUSTER OF STORMS FIRING NEAR KLHX AT 1930Z.
EMBEDDED VORT MAX APPARENT ON VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 19Z SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT STORM COMPLEX TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO THEN TURN MORE EAST AS THE STORMS PROPAGATE INTO INTO THE
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS OVER KANSAS...ROUGHLY IN THE VICINITY OF
INTERSTATE 70. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR FIVE
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM RUSSELL SPRINGS TO NORTON AS 3
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE COUNTIES IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 0.7
TO 1.1 INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. THE ETA HAS DONE
THE BEST OF THE NCEP MODELS WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
APPEARS ON TRACK...SO WILL FOLLOW.

FOR THE EXTENDED...AVN/MRF CONSISTENT WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY...BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY. FMR MOS APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PREFER THE MEX POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
DAY 7 VERIFICATION OF THE LAST FEW MONTHS YIELDS THE MEX SUPERIOR
TO THE MRF. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DISPLACED SOUTHEAST AND
ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST TROF MOVES EAST TO LEAD TO CHANCE FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR NORTON...GRAHAM...SHERIDAN...
       LOGAN APND GOVE COUNTIES.

SKIPPER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 26 2001

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
LOGAN...GOVE...SHERIDAN...NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLOODING.

BARKER

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-270300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
344 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM
MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR CHEYENNE...KIT CARSON...AND YUMA COUNTIES OF
COLORADO...AND DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE
INCLUDED...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...SHERMAN...THOMAS...WALLACE...LOGAN...
GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

BULLER