Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND HYDRO EFFECTS INTO
THE EXTENDED...AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER BLOCKING HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY.

ALL MODELS INITIALIZING WELL AT H85. AVN IS CATCHING SW AT H7 IN
NEB...WITH THE ETA THE ONLY ONE CATCHING SW EXTENDING FROM GREAT
BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE AVN IS TOO COOL OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AT H7...WITH THE ETA AND NGM BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
OVERALL WILL GO WITH THE ETA FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS PACKAGE.

TONIGHT... ETA AND AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOST PARAMETERS. STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION...THICKNESS DIVERGENCE AND H5-H3 UVV ARE
INDICATING MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE AVN IS
SHOWING PROBABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH EXTREME QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA LINES UP WITH ETA STRONGEST H5-H3 UVV
AND ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE...THIS REINFORCES MY
INCLINATION TO GO HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST THE WEST
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. MAJOR CONCERN IS TRACK OF POSSIBLE MCS
AND SUPPRESSION OUTSIDE OF MCS. WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN NEAR RECORD TEMPS...WILL NOT
ISSUE FFW FOR TONIGHT'S PRECIP. TOMORROW NIGHT WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
AFTER SECOND CONSECUTIVE NIGHT OF PRECIP SHUD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FFG AFTER TONIGHTS RAIN TO
CHECK FOR POSSIBLE FFW. BIGGEST CONCERN IS INTO WEDNESDAY AS TO HOW
LONG LOW CLOUDS LINGER AND EFFECTS ON TEMPS AND CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINK THE ETA BRINGS THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH...WITH THE FWC BEING TOO FAR NORTH AND WILL
GO WITH A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO FOR TEMPS WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED... FAIR TO GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN THAT RESULTS CAUSES A LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE
OF TS UNTIL SATURDAY...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE WILL AGAIN ASSERT
ITSELF TO THE WEST...CUTTING OF MONSOONAL FLOW AND DRYING OUT THE
MID LEVELS MORE. INTO THE WEEKEND THERMAL RIDGE AGAIN SETS IN AND
WILL GO WITH HIGHER MIXING DEPTH H7 SUPPORTED TEMPS.

.GLD...NONE.

SVEN

COZ090-NEZ079>081-240200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
354 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
UNTIL 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT). IN FAR EAST COLORADO THE WATCH INCLUDES
YUMA COUNTY...AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THE WATCH INCLUDES
DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUJS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

RJC