Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2001

CHALLENGES ARE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF LATE PM AND EVENING TSRAS ALL
PERIODS.

SLIGHT DELAY IN PRODUCT/S DUE TO AWIPS REPAIRS. MODELS SIMILAR
TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH ETA FOR RESOLUTION.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT FCST PD AS ALL MODEL(S) GUID VERY CLOSE.
BOX JUST ISSUED IN FAR EAST OF CWA NOTED BELOW. HIGHEST POPS THAT
AREA WITH 40. ELSEWHERE 30 IN SOUTH AND 20 ALL OTHERS.

MODELS SHOW S/W VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS AREA THROUGH EVENING FROM
EXTREME SOUTH TO EXTREME EAST THIS EVENING...FITS BOX WELL. ANOTHER
S/W...BUT WEAKER...THU PM. WILL GO AGAIN WITH 30 POPS IN EAST AND
SOUTH FOR THU EVENING.

FRI MODELS SHOW STRONGER S/W AGAIN APPROACHING FROM SW DURING DAY.
IN FACT AVN SHOWS CUT-OFF 70H LOW DEVELOPING IN SE CO. INCREASING
CLDS ALL DAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS IN WEST CWA AS A RESULT.
HAVE GONE WITH 30 POPS EVERYWHERE FRI EVEN FOR THIS REASON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN EXTENDED AS CEN PART OF COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER MAJOR
HIGH ALOFT. HOWEVER BEGINS TO WEAKEN EARLY IN WEEK AND BECOMES MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
DRIFT SOUTH. DRY SUN THEN CHANCE TSRAS RETURN MON THRU WED. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER BY MID WEEK.

THANKS TO DDC FOR ALL THEIR ASSISTANCE TODAY.

.GLD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT...KS COUNTIES
DECATUR...SHERIDAN...NORTON...GRAHAM...AND GOVE.

RJC

KSZ003-004-015-016-029-190300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE FOLLOWING KANSAS
COUNTIES...DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GOVE...NORTON AND GRAHAM.

STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTENSIFY BY
THIS EVENING. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. AS A RESULT...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL
10 PM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

KPL