Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS WL BE CHC OF TSRA NEXT TWO NIGHTS ALONG WITH MAX
TEMPS NEXT TWO DAYS.

SFC FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF MCK...AND IS NOW ALONG
KS/NE BORDER WITH LAPS SHOWG GOOD MSTR/THETA E CONV THERE AND TO THE
WEST OF THE CWFA. ONCE AGAIN TSRA HAS DEVELOPED FM SE WY/NE CO INTO
WRN NE. A PREFRONTAL TROF WHICH PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER TDY IS DRAPED
ACROSS SRN CWFA WITH WEAK MSTR CONV INDICATED ALONG IT. SOME TCU HAS
DVLPED THERE AS WELL. SATL INDICATES S/W MOVG IN FROM WY. BASED ON
INITIAL ANALYSIS...TRENDS/RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND SATL...WL PREFER
THE ETA OVERALL WITH A LTL AVN BLENDED IN.

FOR TON...BY 12Z ETA/AVN PUSH FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST NRN TWO THIRDS
OF CWFA. MODELS BRING WY S/W INTO CWFA. MODELS WERE STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE LAST NIGHT. TDYS RUN SEEMS TO WASH IT OUT/WEAKEN WHICH
I AM NOT SURE ABT. LAST NIGHT TSRA THAT DVLPED TO THE NW OF CWFA
WEAKENED AND DIED SHORTLY AFT GETTING IN NW KS AS THE ETA K-F INDICATED.
TONIGHT ETA K-F SAYS TSRA WL DEVELOP/MOVE OVR CWFA WITH BEST CHC
ALONG KS/NEB STATE LINE. WL HAVE HIEST POPS NORTH WITH BEST
MSTR/LIFT/CONV AND LEAST IN THE SW PTN WHERE LESS LIFT/MSTR RESIDE.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE/SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE
DAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...AND WL BE NORTH OF CWFA BY 00Z. ETA
LOOKS A LTL WARM WITH AVN THE COOLEST. WL TEND TO GO ABV NGM MOS AND
BLO ETA 2M/85H PROGS. SE WINDS DEVELOP AND MSTR THROUGH MID LVLS
INCREASES. MUCH STRONGER S/W PROGGED TO COME INTO CWFA DURG THE
NIGHT AS FRONT CRASHES THROUGH ENTIRE CWFA. BEST PARAMETERS FOR TSRA
WL AGAIN BE ALONG NRN CWFA AND LEAST DOWN IN SW WHERE 70H TEMPS ARE
HIEST.

FOR THU/THU NIGHT...AGAIN WL HAVE SUBSIDENCE/SUNNY SKIES BUT WL HAVE
ELY/UPSLOPE WINDS. WL COOL TEMPS AND WL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS DID
FOR WED. INITIAL COORD HAD NOTHING IN FOR THU NIGHT. HWVR...BLV
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MSTR PLUS UPSLOPE WINDS TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF
SLGT CHC IN THE WRN CWFA FOR THAT TIME EVEN THOUGH 50H RIDGE STARTS
BLDG IN. IN THIS SAME SCENARIO A FEW DAYS...MODELS UNDERDID THE TSRA
POTENTIAL.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVG A LTL TROUBLE WITH WRN CONUS RDG THIS
MRNG. THE MRF WAS THE WORST OF THE MODELS. IT HAD THE 50H HEIGHTS TO
HIGH OVER WRN HALF OF CONUS...AND ESPECIALLY HAD THE ERN/SRN SECIONS
OF THE RDG TOO STRONG. ALSO MODELS WERE NOT QUITE FAR ENOUGH WEST
WITH THE RDG LINE. THE ECMWF/UKMET/AVN DID THE BEST WITH THE UKMET
BEING THE WINNER. DESPITE THIS...MODEL SOLNS ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT.
SOLNS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN...AND TRENDS OF EACH MODEL TO
THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS ARE SIMILAR.

MODELS ARE A LTL SLOWER/FURTHER WEST IN THEIR PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES. WHEN MODELS SAG THE RDG FURTHER SOUTH...THEY ARE A LTL
FURTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE WHICH IF CORRECT WL DEFINITELY IMPROVE
PCPN CHANCES. BASED ON TRENDS FM PREVIOUS RUN AND SATL SHOWG A
RATHER AMPLIFIED/SLOW MOVING PATTERN FM CNTRL PAC INTO CNTRL CONUS...
LIKE THE SOLNS THAT ARE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST. THIS WOULD BE THE
AVN/UKMET. THIS MEANS CONTG THE CHC OF TSRA AND SLIGHTLY TO MUCH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER