Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE POPS THIS MORNING FROM
STORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO CWA ALONG WITH TEMPS THROUGHOUT PACKAGE.

06Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WESTWARD ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W OVER NORTHERN NV MOVING NORTHEAST.

MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PAST SEVERAL RUNS HANDLING LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION OF ETA/AVN AS MODELS OF CHOICE
THIS MORNING. BOTH MODELS DOING BETTER JOB WITH CURRENT AND FUTURE
POSITION OF COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS WITH PROGRESSION OF
S/W IMPULSES ACROSS CWA IN UPPER FLOW.

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
NEBRAKSA SHOULD PROCEEDED SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH CLOSELY UP TO ZONE ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE HOW PRECIP AND
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES. UPPER LVL RIDGE GRADUALLY
TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS WEST HALF OF CWA FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. WILL PROBABLY CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR MORNING
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO LESS
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST AREAS TODAY
AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER EAST
AS MODELS PROG THE FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CWA.

FOR TONIGHT SATELLITE AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER S/W IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SEASONAL AND WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

FOR MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL HI
PLAINS. VORT MAX OVER UTAH MOVES EASTWARD.FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS
AND BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS RIDGE OVER UPPER MIDWEST MOVES MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH. EXPECT FRONT TO BEGIN RETURN BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. WILL CARRY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO PRESENCE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE NO CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUN. WILL 8MAKE NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS