Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT MON JUN 18 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL AS TEMPS
FOLLOWING FROPA TONIGHT.

18Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND WAS MOVING STEADILY SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED NEAR A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND KANSAS LINE INTO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WILL GO WITH AVN
AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE SINCE IT HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH EVOLUTION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 5H S/W OVER COLORADO WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS
CWA TONIGHT AS WELL. 85H AND 7H TEMPS WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY
RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. FROM AROUND SUNSET AND BEYOND AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPROACH EXPECT
THE CAP TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF CWA AND PROCEED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
NOT AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CREATED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS.
ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AS UPSLOPE FLOW
SETS UP FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL COOL ALSO BEHIND
FRONT. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND STALLS AS LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPS BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ALSO SEE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING ACROSS AREA IN UPPER FLOW. WILL MAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD MRF AND ECMWF SHOW A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 90S BY WEEKEND. APPEARS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING IN
MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WILL THUS CARRY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

.GLD...NONE.

LAMMERS