Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
150 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2001

THIS PACKAGE APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE MAIN
CHALLENGES BEING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT NEAR A HON-ONL-BBW-MCK-
PUB LINE AND ADVANCING EASTWARD AT A GOOD RATE.  60+ DEW POINTS
WERE POOLED JUST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.  SATELLITE AND SURFACE
REPORTS HAD A MID CLOUD MASS EAST OF THE UPPER TROF.  THE CLOUDS
WERE PUTTING THE DAMPER ON HEATING AND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT CHASING THE FRONT THROUGH GID CWA THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MAY CATCH SOME STORMS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z.
SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS OK BUT LACK OF HEATING MAY KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING SEVERE.

FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY SIMPLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  INCREASING
SURFACE WIND, CLEARING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL SET IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEATURED ON ETA TIME
HEIGHT IS A CONCERN.  STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE POINT TOWARD COLD AIR ST OR SC AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW FWC TOMORROW.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE CLEARING SKY, LIGHT WINDS AND COLD H85
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON
MONDAY MORNING.  FAN LOOKS A BIT COOL, BUT COULD BE ON THE MARK IF
LOW CLOUDS HOLD MOST OF SUNDAY.

EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS BENIGN WITH OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE.
AVN, MRF AND CANADIAN MODELS PUSH A STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE BLOCK
AND THEN ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.  UK AND ENSEMBLE DISAGREE ON
THIS FEATURE.  FEEL A CHANCE FOR TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRI IS THE
BEST CHOICE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE 120 HR AVN FCST.

.GID...NONE.

SCHURR

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-230200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
428 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM FULLERTON TO GRAND
ISLAND TO HOLDREGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...PEEKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STORMS THIS EVENING
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...NAMELY IN THE
VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER
TODAY ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

GUYER