Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

TRICKY TEMPS AND POPS...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO UPPER LOW ENTERED THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA BY AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND
STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE NNW UNDER THIS UPPER ACTION...WITH A
RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SECONDARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT...LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING...ALSO
MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE NNW. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER PUSH FROM
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO...THEN LATER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AM.

THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW AND ENERGY SWINGING INTO WESTERN KA WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF SFC FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND MAY EVEN BACK IT UP A TAD...ALLOWING FOR CHANCE OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THAYER
IN NE AND JEWEL...MITCHELL AND OSBORNE COUNTIES IN KA. POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE FOR WIND AND
HAIL...ALTHOUGH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS UNLIKELY HERE...AND SO CHANCE
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE LOW. THINK THAT AREA COULD GET SOME STORM
TRAINING FOR A SHORT PERIOD...AND THUS MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN...TIL LINE
PUSHES EAST AND OUT OF CWA.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MINUS 10 TO 15 DEGREE H5 COLD POOL ADVECTING
INTO REGION HAS KEPT LASPE RATES RELATIVELY HIGH EVEN AS CAA NEAR
SFC HAS BEEN ONGOING.  AND SAME THING WILL LIKELY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS A MINUS 20 COLD POOL LURKS TO THE NW...WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS...PUTTING POPS BACK IN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EVEN TONIGHT...RAIN/SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE AIDED BY THE LFQ OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO A SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
POSITION OVERNIGHT. NOT GOING WHOLE HOG ON POPS TONIGHT
THOUGH...KEEPING 30S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AND 40 SOUTH.
TOMORROW...WILL PUT IN 50 CHANCE ACROSS THE BOARD AS STRONGEST PART
OF THE NW UPPER WAVE MOVES IN BEHIND EXITING SFC FRONT WITH UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG QUITE A BIT SATURDAY AND AND AT THE SAME TIME
GO POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND EVE...AND MID LEVEL
LASPE RATES SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE 7 TO 8 DEG AREA...SO KEEPING
EVEN 30 POPS IN FOR SAT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TOMORROW HOWEVER...TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA... SHIFTING BEST UPPER SUPPORT WITH
IT BY 12Z SUNDAY. STABILITY BUILDING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
SFC UP WILL END PRECIP CHANCES...AND WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SKIES...USHER IN THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SUMMER WITH LOW
TEMPS SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S. GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HRS IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO TAKING MIDDLE OF ROAD
BETWEEN MODELS...WITH TRENDS FROM ETA.

EXTENDED STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS STAYING LARGELY IN THE 70S AS
UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL THROUGHOUT THROUGH WED. MRF HAS A RATHER
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF. EUROPEAN AND
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS FEATURE TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. TIMING IF AND
WHEN IT ARRIVES MAY BE A LITTLE SUSPECT...SO STAYING WITH PRECIP
THURS AND ADDING CHANCE TO FRIDAY.
.GID...NONE.

JB

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-072100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK - SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH...THE MAIN AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO SHIFT
SOUTH.

THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS LATER TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...ACROSS A SMALL SECTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON
NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE. ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OR PENNY
SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT
BE NEEDED.

MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    GLEN ELDER                KS    0.75 INCH HAIL
09/07/01   MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
448 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    3 W BELOIT                KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
09/07/01   MITCHELL                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                           ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS