Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
201 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2001

FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING/EXTENT OF PRECIP THROUGH PD.

18Z SFC MAP SHOWS STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTNDD FM IA W INTO LEE SIDE
TROF OVR SE CO. LG OUTFLW BNDRY FM AM MCS HAD PUSHED WELL S INTO C
KS WITH A FEW LEFT OVR SHRA/S ALG IT. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFTS OUT W TO THE NE PANHANDLE WHERE CONVN CONTS TO ORGANIZE INVOF
ENERGETIC UPR TROF PER WATER VAPOR OVR CO ALG SRN PERIPHERY OF 100
KT JET MAX IN ND AND FVRBL UPSLOPE FLW.

12Z MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LG SCALE AND CONSISTENT
W/PREVIOUS RUNS ADVERTISING MCS EVOLUTION TONIGHT. MAIN PLAYERS
TONIGHT ARE AFOREMENTIONED CO WV...ND SPEED MAX AND STATIONARY BNDRY.
XPC WRN NE STORMS TO EXPAND...ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCN/W LG SCALE ASCENT AHD OF EJECTING WV AND INCREASING UPR LVL
DVRG INVOF ENTRANCE REGION OF SIG UPR JET. SIG QPF POSSIBLE WITHIN
DVLPG AGEO CIRC ACRS 850-700MB FGEN BNDRY AS MCS/MCC TAKES SHAPE
ARND MIDNIGHT OR LTR. BEST HVY RAIN THREAT N OF I-80. NO DOUBT PLENTY
OF MOISTR TO WORK WITH GIVEN TOP 12Z PW NR 2 INCHES AND CONTD
SUBTROPIC MOIST PLUME OVRHD. STILL XPC A FEW STORMS TO FIRE ALG
STATIONARY FNT LT THIS AFTN ESP IN LIEU OF DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY
CURRENTLY AND OBSVD MOIST CONV ALG BNDRY PER LAPS/RUCII. WILL CONT TO
MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...SIG RAIN TO HOLD IN THROUGH TOMORROW AM IN THE LEAST.
RAIN COULD GO ALL DAY AHD OF MID LVL TROF AND CONTD UPR SUPPORT.
APPEARS BEST CHC OF SIG QPF SHLD SHIFT SWD DURING THE DAY IN
PROXIMITY TO BEST THETA-E RIDGING AND LG SCALE ASCENT AHD OF MID
LVL TROF. SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT TO EXTND LIKELY POPS INTO TUE
NIGHT...ESP OVR NRN KS BUT TEMPORARILY DRYING OUT AFT THAT ON WED.
GENERAL FLATTENING OF UPR HGTS WILL LEAD TO SWD SHIFT OF MID LAT
WESTERLIES IN CONJUNCTION W/RENEWED TROFFING ALG W COAST SHLD MAKE
FOR UNSETTLED CONDS THU CONTG INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL AMEND EXTNDD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.

.GID...NONE.

TEH

NEZ060-072-082-240700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
105 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 617 HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...NUMBER 617...ISSUED MONDAY EVENING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS EXPIRED AND WILL NOT BE
EXTENDED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS BUT A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KISNER