Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 AM CST TUE APR 3 2001

SHRA/TSRA CHCS THE MAIN CONCERN.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE
NEBRASK AND KANSAS BORDER.  ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH SFC DPS 50 TO 55.  VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BELOW A MILE SOUTH
OF FRONT IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN FOG/STRATUS.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CWA.  SHRA/TSRA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHRA ARE
MOVING INTO DRIER AIR...HOWEVER RAIN STILL EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH OVERALL PATTERN WITH 130KT JET ON BACK SIDE OF
UPPER LOW DIGGING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS...
SUBSEQUENTLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TRANSITIONS SW...WHILE A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER UNTIL LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD WHEN
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  NGM SFC FEATURES TREND
NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND OVERALL AN AVN/ETA BLEND USED FOR FCST.

AFORMENTIONED SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING...THEN
EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK FROM PCPN DURING THE AFTN.  CLOUDS AND
EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS AFTN AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FCST MAXES.  TSRA
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN WESTERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR SFC LOW CENTER IN
SE WYOMING/NE COLORADO.  PROPAGATION OF ANY COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPS
WOULD BE EASTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT POPS TONIGHT.  ALSO OF
CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG...SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS
IN NC KS...AS ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ALONG FRONT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING LOW CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL...AND
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF THIS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND SE SFC WINDS SURGE MOISTURE
NORTH INTO THE CWA WITH SFC DPS INCREASING TO 60-65F PER ETA AND
55-60 ON AVN.  ETA CAPES INCREASE TO 1500J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES TO
3500J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST.  LATEST DAY2 OUTLOOK SLGHT RISK EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN FCST WED THRU WED NIGHT.  HOW WARM TO
GO WITH TEMPS TRICKY WEDNESDAY AS SW AREAS COULD RISE WELL INTO 70S
OR EVEN WARMER AS AVN DEPICTS H85 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C IN SOUTHWEST
CWA.  oWILL STAY CONSERVATIVE ON WED HIGHS FOR NOW.

DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

FAY