Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2001

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF LOCATED FROM SASK TO NRN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROF EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS SASK AND NRN MT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE ALONG TROF AXIS MOVING INTO SW SASK
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. CURRENT STEERING WIND AND
EXPECTED STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HOWEVER...THEY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS A RIGHT TURNER COULD
DROP SOUTH INTO NE MT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO MANITOBA THIS EVENING.

FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WRN NORTH
DAKOTA...AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER ERN ZONES AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE OVER THE SRN ZONES AS DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT IS STILL MOVING
INTO THOSE AREAS. WITH CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG IN THIS AREA...HIGHEST
NEAR GDV...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. NARROW LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING FROM PLENTYWOOD TO FORT PECK AT THIS TIME WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING NEAR BIL. WILL MENTION SCATTERED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES EXCEPT NW WILL DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. WILL ADD POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN SE BASED ON
LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SASK ON MONDAY WITH THE SRN
EDGE OF TROF CROSSING MT DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. GIVEN THAT
THIS TROF HAS PRODUCED SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALBERTA
THIS AFTERNOON. SCT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS NE
MT MONDAY AFTN. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LI NEAR ZERO MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM BUT A FORECASTED MID LEVEL CAP WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TEMPS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE COOLER AS TEMPS STAYING
IN THE 60S NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. MAV HIGHS OF 70 MAY
BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR GGW AND SDY BUT LOOKS REALISTIC FOR ZONES
ALONG CANADIAN BORDER.  WILL GO CLOSE TO WARMER FWC IN THE SOUTH.

AFTER TROF MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT... FLOW ALOFT GOES ZONAL.
MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN MT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...CANNOT RULE OUT
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND FWC TEMPS SIMILAR ON TUE AND LOOKS
GOOD. FORRESTER

EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA BY WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MOS AS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN GOOD FOR LAST FEW DAYS.   POHL

KGGW 055/077 052/079 056/084 057/085 057/085 057/085 056/083
      BBBBBBB  792312/8733333
KGDV 058/080 052/078 054/083 058/085 057/085 056/085 057/082
      BmBBBBBB  793312/8733333

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