Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
548 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SOLID LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION WILL NEAR NORTHWESTERN TRACON
CORNER-POST BY 0015Z...ARRIVING KFTW 0130Z...KDFW 0230Z AND KDAL
0330Z. EXPECT TO ISSUE AN AIRPORT ADVISORY 01-05Z AT KDFW/KDAL DUE TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  LARGE HAIL AND WINDS TO 58 KNOTS HAVE
OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LINE MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND MAY HANGUP
BETWEEN 03-06Z...THEN ACCELERATE LATER TONIGHT. VFR SKIES UNTIL
STORMS ARRIVE...THEN MVFR NEAR THE STORMS...AND POSSIBLE IFR BRIEFLY
IN HEAVY RAIN CORES. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AFTER 07Z AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES. VFR EXPECTED AFTER 08Z. 75

=====================================================>
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION....

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AND DRY
LINE BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND OKLAHOMA CITY.  WITH MANY HOURS OF
ADDITIONAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE RUC
SUGGESTS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS...BUT IT ALSO SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES AT THE 700MB LEVEL WILL
COOL OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME...SO THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...
BEFORE THE FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
WICHITA FALLS AND ABILENE...SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OUT
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TORNADO WATCH ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
THIS AREA WILL CORRESPOND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY TONIGHT IN THE NORTH...AND IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE SOUTH. AS THE RAINS MOVE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GO
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH...AND CHANCE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED
GUIDANCE VERY MUCH...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT....AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS. STILL BELIEVE THE
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME GOOD
RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 84
DFW   72  90  69  94 /  70  20   0   0
ACT   72  92  69  95 /  50  30  10   0

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-150900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THAT
PART OF NORTH TEXAS NORTH OF A COMANCHE...CORSICANA...CANTON LINE.
FOR THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT...POSITIONED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FORMING ALONG A DUNCAN OKLAHOMA...TO ABILENE LINE AT MID AFTERNOON.
THE LINE WILL MOVE STEADY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED BY A WARM
LAYER AROUND 5000 FEET AT MID AFTERNOON.  THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION BEFORE 8 PM WEST OF A BONHAM...TO LAMPASAS LINE.
ACTIVATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS MAY BE REQUESTED
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

0354 PM    LOVING                    TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   YOUNG                          REPORTED BY GRAHAM PD

0355 PM    ANTELOPE                  TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   JACK                           REPORT RELAYED BY NWS
                                          WFO NORMAN

0425 PM    BRECKENRIDGE              TX   2.00 INCH HAIL
06/14/01   STEPHENS                       REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 2
                                          INCHES REPORTED TBY A TV
                                          STATION IN ABILENE AND
                                          BY THE COUNTY SHERIFF