Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY REACHING THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA AT THIS TIME.  00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THE CAP HAD WEAKENED
AND LIFTED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 4000+ J/KG CAPE ABOVE 750 MB.  WIND
SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS WHICH FORM TONIGHT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND.  ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SPEED SHEAR MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS.  00Z RUC40 RUN
INDICATES BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS IS DEPENDANT
ON ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST TEXAS IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE.  HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
AND REMOVE IT IN THE SOUTHEAST...AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THERE WILL
NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONE PACKAGE WILL BE SOME MINOR CLOUD
COVER AND WIND DIRECTION ADJUSTMENTS.

79

528 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH SOUTH OKLAHOMA SURFACE LOW AND SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY FROM KPGO-KF39-
KMAF TURNING ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA.
TSRA WILL MOVE SLOWLY AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE...THEN BEGIN
MOVING E-ESE AND OVERTAKING KDFW TRACON 01-03Z.  LARGE HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE WIND POSSIBLE.  LATER...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH LOCAL TRACON
NEAR 12Z. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  CLOUDS
VFR/MVFR KDFW TRACON...BUT TURNING MVFR KACT 12-18Z.  75

.FWD...NONE.