Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

MCS CONTINUES TO HAUL THE MAIL SOUTH...WITH NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS
40KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FEED THE STORMS. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ALL AREAS AND BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM VERY STRONG WINDS (60 TO 80 MPH). SOME HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES AS KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS GOOD TURNING WITH HEIGHT. 80

...612 CDT AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NO SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR WACO OR METROPLEX TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...VFR AND GENERALLY SLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN/IF CONVECTION IN OK/KS/NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE IN. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST ARRIVAL AROUND 09Z...
BUT SWD PROPAGATION OR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL OK COULD MOVE THIS UP A
FEW HOURS. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS AT WACO TOWARD DAYBREAK IF OUTFLOW FROM
NORTHERN CONVECTION DOES NOT INTERFERE.
06

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-280700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
922 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND...TO ATHENS. THIS INCLUDES
THE CITIES OF SHERMAN...PARIS...CORSICANA...MINERAL WELLS...
BOWIE...AND THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

LATE THIS EVENING...A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHED FROM TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF OKLAHOMA.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH. EVENING WEATHER BALLOON DATA FROM FORT WORTH INDICATED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH ONLY A
VERY WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET OF INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS WILL DEVELOP OVER N TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THIS
WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE STORMS
FROM OKLAHOMA.

FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SUPPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE FROM VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY BE
ACTIVATED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. ACTIVATION SOUTH OF I-20 MAY BE
NEEDED BETWEEN 2 AND 4V AM.

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