Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CST THU FEB 15 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NEW MEXICO...
NORTH OF EL PASO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WITH A NEAR SATURATED GROUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.  THE ETA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THIS REGION.  THIS ALONG WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...PROMPTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALONG AND EAST OF A BOWIE...TO MERIDIAN...TO LAMPASAS LINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA NORTHWEST
OF A GRAHAM...TO SHERMAN LINE FOR FREEZING RAIN.  #58

...524 PM CST THU FEB 15 2001 AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 10Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MAIN H5 VORT
CONTINUES TO BRING PVA INTO THE REGION. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
BOUNCE AROUND IN AND OUT OF RAINFALL FROM 4 MILES TO 1 MILE OR
LESS. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS MAX LIFT MOVES ACROSS N
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD GO TO MVFR AND THEN VFR AFTER 10Z AS UPPER
LOW FINALLY EJECTS EAST OF N TEXAS.

...PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NEXT 12 HOURS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA.  FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES NORTH OF
THE FRONT ARE MARGINAL... SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER AND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT A
FEW STORMS WHICH FORM THIS EVENING COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM FLASH FLOODING.
WILL ISSUE A WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CANTON...CORSICANA...WACO...
LAMPASAS LINE TONIGHT.  NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE INCH TONIGHT AND WIDE-SPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IN NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RAIN
TODAY COULD CAUSE WATER TO COLLECT IN LOW SPOTS AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.  DON'T EXPECT ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME ROADS COULD DEVELOP SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR FREEZING.

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EAST
TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD END IN THE WEST BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY MIDDAY.

EXPECT NORTH WIND TONIGHT TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SHOULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONCE SKIES CLEAR.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NO RAIN.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST AND
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH 40S AND LOWER
50S.  SLOW WARMUP EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.  #79E

DFW  37/50/33/55  +300   ACT 41/53/33/59 +300

.FTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...ALONG AND EAST OF A BOWIE...
       MERIDIAN...LAMPASAS LINE.