Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2001

CURRENT MASS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND H850 JET
AXIS. DRY LINE LOCATED FROM CHILDRESS TO JUST WEST OF SAN ANGELO
BEGINNING TO SURGE EASTWARD. WARM 60+ DEWPOINTS HAVE SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE METROPLEX AND MAY REACH THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. INSOLATION OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN THIRD HAS ENHANCED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
THE COLD POOL ALOFT EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THE 12Z H500
MB ANALYSIS...HAS REACHED WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH STORMS
FOCUSING ALONG THE DRY LINE AS IT REACHES A MONTAGUE...MINERAL
WELLS...TO LAMPASAS LINE. EXPECT THE NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...TO EXIT THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUD TREND THEREAFTER. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED AND WILL NOT WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME.
CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL RESULT IN A TRANQUIL
PATTERN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD UNTIL THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

DFW 53/76/45/72 8000            | ACT 53/77/45/73 8000

.FTW...NONE.                                      ...48...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-112200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A FORT WORTH TO TEMPLE
LINE WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION AT MIDDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM WEST OF A
BOWIE...TO MINERAL WELLS...TO STEPHENVILLE LINE. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN AREAS WEST OF FORT WORTH AFTER 3 PM...
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 6 PM.

...WINDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY WATERS ON AREA
LAKES. BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN VENTURING INTO OPEN
WATERS.

09