Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL SHORTWV MOVG THRU CWA ATTM...INTERACTING WITH
POTENT WMFNT WHICH HAS MOVED NWD TOWARD SIOUX CITY. THIS WMFNT WL
CONT TO LIFT NWD AS THE NIGHT PROGESSES...MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE EAST MAY NOT BE MUCH
COLDER THAN THEIR CRNT READINGS RIGHT NOW. AS FAR AS CONVECTION
CHANCES...AM WONDERING WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT DVLP BEHIND THE CRNT LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVG THRU THE I 90 CORRIDOR. SO FAR...NO ECHOES TO
REPORT ON THE KOAX AND KLNX 88D'S...AND IN FACT CONDITIONS HAVE
CLOUDED UP AGAIN IN NE NEB. CRNT THOUGHTS NOW...ARE THAT EVENING
CONVECTION MAY HAVE TROUBLE BREAKING ALONG THE WMFNT DUE TO A LACK
OF MID LVL SUPPORT TO KICK IT OFF...HOWEVER OF COURSE...THIS IS VERY
TRICKY. CAP STRENGHTENS OVR MUCH OF THE CWA VERY LATE TNGT...AS
700MB LVL DRAMATICALLY WM'S AHD OF CDFNT TO THE WEST.
THEREFORE...NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THE WRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
WL MOVE MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE JAMES VALLEY OR THE FAR NRN TIER
OF CWA...AS IT LIFTS E TO NEWD WITH THE MID LVL FLOW AND OVER THE
CAP. SO THEREFORE WORDED THE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.

CDFNT MOVES INTO CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AND USED THE AVN/ETA SOLN FOR
TIMING. STRONG CAP EXISTS AHD OF THE BNDRY...SO PCPN LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FNT. COULD ACTUALLY GET QUITE WM IN THE
ERN HALF...WITH STOUT SRLY WINDS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS IS THE
AREA TO BE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FOR SVR CHCS...FM ARND YANKTON TO
JACKSON MN. JAMES VALLEY MAY NOT GET MUCH OUT OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY
AS THEY ARE TOO FAR BEHIND THE CONVERGENT ZONE. AS THE CAPPING
BREAKS ALONG THE BNDRY...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE IN THE DAY AND
THRU THE NIGHT IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY OVER MANY LOCATIONS...WRAP
ARND BEHIND THE SYSTEM. STILL A SMALL SHORTWV PROGGED ON SUNDAY...
BUT AGREE WITH THE PMDEPD THAT THE MRF HGTS LOOK ONCE AGAIN
OVERDONE...SO TRENDED THE TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.FSD...NONE
 FUHS

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

*** THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PERTAINS ONLY TO CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ***

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL TRY TO FIGHT ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL GO REMAINS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SIOUX FALLS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SDZ050-063>065-068>070-NEZ013-130500-
GREGORY-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY-DIXON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YANKTON...
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF
  THE THUNDERSTORMS DO BECOME SEVERE...IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR QUICKLY
  FROM THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.
  TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 1 PM.

SDZ057>062-066-067-MNZ089-090-098-IAZ001>003-012>014-130500-
BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-ROCK-NOBLES-JACKSON-
TURNER-LINCOLN-LYON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERLAIN...MITCHELL...SIOUX FALLS...LUVERNE...
WORTHINGTON...ROCK RAPIDS...SPIRIT LAKE...SIOUX CENTER...
SPENCER...
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AFTER 3 PM.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.
  HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM.

SDZ038>040-052>056-MNZ071-072-080-081-097-130500-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-LINCOLN-LYON-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-
MOODY-PIPESTONE-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HURON...BROOKINGS...PIPESTONE...SLAYTON...
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FURTHER SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
  NORTHWARD. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM.

SDZ071-IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ014-130500-
UNION-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-DAKOTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LE MARS...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...
1112 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FURTHER SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  INTO THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH EARLY
  AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY THEN WEAKEN...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER NOON.

IAZ032-122100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR IDA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA...

THE SEgVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR IDA COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST IOWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.