Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2001, 5:37 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2001, 5:37 PM MST (00:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2001, 6:10 PM MST
- In force
- 33 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Gila County, AZ
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 233 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -103 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2513 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 54 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
366 WUUS55 KFGZ 170041 SVRFLG AZC007-170110- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 537 PM MST THU AUG 16 2001 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 610 PM MST * AT 537 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL GILA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YOUNG...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO... BREAD PAN MOUNTAIN AND SHEEP BASIN MOUNTAIN IN RURAL WESTERN GILA COUNTY AT 550 PM MST THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3396 11093 3414 11096 3411 11127 3391 11123 MAS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 3:00 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 3:00 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 300 PM MST THU AUG 16 2001 .SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY DRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS. .DISCUSSION...LARGE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE EPAC WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVIDENT IN THE WV IMAGERY. STRONGEST DRYING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS IN THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE. LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DRY...MAINLY THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING. KFGZ 1200 UTC SOUNDING NOW SHOWS DRYING EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS SUCH THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 40S ONCE THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE SOUNDING. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SO THAT INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THESE STORMS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS EXPECT SOME STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL ZONES. WITH FAIRLY DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND PW ABOUT 60% OF NORMAL... SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. .EXTENDED...AS ANTICYCLONE MIGRATES TO THE EAST THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MRF IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. THE MRF DRIVES A STRONG WAVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH SITUATIONS WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE MRF SCENARIO WOULD HAVE AN ABRUPT SHUTOFF OF THE MONSOON FLOW WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND COOLER TEMPS. FOR NOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY WAY TO DETERMINE WHICH MODEL IS THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION. WILL SIMPLY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL SOME CONSENSUS DEVELOPS. DB .FGZ...NONE.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.