Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 14, 2001Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 14, 2001, 12:50 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Aug 14, 2001, 12:50 PM MST (19:50 UTC)
Expired: Aug 14, 2001, 1:15 PM MST
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 486 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1726 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 0 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

331 
WUUS55 KFGZ 141951
SVRFLG
AZC007-142015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1250 PM MST TUE AUG 14 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PAYSON...STAR VALLEY

* UNTIL 115 PM MST

* AT 1250 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER STAR VALLEY...OR ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF
  STAR VALLEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...
  OVER STAR VALLEY AT 1255 PM MST

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3436 11124 3434 11133 3411 11134 3416 11110

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 14, 10:25 AM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 14, 10:25 AM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1025 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2001

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TODAY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT AS WIDE SPREAD AS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THE SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS
DIMINISHED...AND WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TODAY...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 500 MB WINDS WILL PUSH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND COOLING IN THE UPPER
LEVEL WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND FGZ SOUNDING
SHOWING A WIND PROFILE THAT STEER THE ANVIL TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
WHILE THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED SOME WHAT.
OVERALL FORECAST IS GOOD. WILL NOT UPDATE...THIS MORNING.

CLEMMONS

.FGZ...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 14, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-141930-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2001

...FEWER YET STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS WILL BE NOT AS WIDE SPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAY...HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE SO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE
COMMON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY.
A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A LOW THREAT FOR HAIL. THE AIR MASS
IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL SIZE
UP TO ONE INCH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FALL TODAY.

Local storm report, Aug 14, 9:57 AM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
0957 AM MST TUE AUG 14 2001

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 AM    SUPAI                     AZ   FLASH FLOOD
08/11/01   COCONINO                       *** 3 DEAD ***
                                          FLASH FLOOD IN REMOTE SIDE CANYON
                                          ON HAVASUPAI INDIAN RESERVATION.
                                          REPORTED BY SUPAI POLICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 14, 1:36 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	24 min
Aug 14, 2:06 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.