Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 29, 2001, 4:27 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 29, 2001, 4:27 PM MDT (22:27 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 29, 2001, 5:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 33 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
County Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -291 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2003 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 5 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -55 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 292232 CCA SVRFLG AZC017-292300- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 327 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2001..COR STORM MOVEMENT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 400 PM MST * AT 327 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER ARIPINE...OR ABOUT 21 MILES EAST OF FOREST LAKES...MOVING SOUTH AT 7 MPH. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3432 11061 3423 11048 3434 11034 344X3 11045
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 29, 3:30 PM MDT, 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 3:30 PM MDT, 57 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2001 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLAGSTAFF AND TO THE EAST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE UP AND COMING WEEKEND. .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGES WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION AS DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED UPSLOPE INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH MAY INHIBIT THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SET POPS IN THE EASTERN RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ACCORDINGLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION DOWN THERE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA PUSHES NORTHWARD AS WELL ON MONDAY AND BECOMES CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE DAY AND LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA FROM THE NORTHEAST PLATEAU INTO THE SHERIDAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND FROM FLAGSTAFF AND TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. EXTENDED...FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY WAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WORTH WATCHING FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CENTERED TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA WITH MONSOONAL FLOW AND WEAK EAST ERLY WAVES TO PERPETUATE TSRA THRU THE EXTENDED. CLEMMONS .FGZ...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 29, 10:35 AM MDT, 5 hours 52 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-301930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2001 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND SOUTH TO THE PRESCOTT AND COTTONWOOD AREAS... AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...AND AS IT DOES IT WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST THE AREA...SO EXPECTED MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAUS SOUTH TOWARD THE PRESCOTT AND COTTONWOOD AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF. SPOTTER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Jul 29, 10:35 AM MDT, 5 hours 52 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-291930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2001 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THE FLOW IS WEAK...SO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT PARTY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHEAST PLATEAU...WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Jul 29, 10:38 AM MDT, 5 hours 49 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-291930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2001 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THE FLOW IS WEAK...SO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT PARTY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHEAST PLATEAU...WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Special weather statement, Jul 29, 10:55 AM MDT, 5 hours 32 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-291930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR DATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 955 AM MST SUN JUL 29 2001 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM OVER TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THE FLOW IS WEAK...SO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT PARTY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHEAST PLATEAU...WITH NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPOTTER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 5:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 36 min |
| Jul 29, 5:09 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 36 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.