Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 14, 2001Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2001, 2:44 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2001, 2:44 PM MST (21:44 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2001, 3:15 PM MST
In force
31 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Cedar City radar (KICX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2001-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 431 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2001-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 25 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
431 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-94 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1713 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 142150
SVRFLG

AZC005-142215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
244 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 315 PM MST

* AT 244 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREDONIA...OR ABOUT 21
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF KANAB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FREDONIA AT 310 PM MST

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM CREEK BEDS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3682 11284 3657 11271 3678 11218 3705 11246

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 2:30 PM MST, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:30 PM MST, 14 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 14 2001

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE UPPER WIND PATTERNS
WILL RESULT IN A MINOR DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND A BIT OF SHEAR HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY TODAY. EXPECT
THIS FORCING TO END THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVES
RESPONSIBLE MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN A BIT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL NOT DRY THINGS OUT AS FAST AS MODELS WOULD
LIKE...BUT WILL SHOW A DRYING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES. BY DAY FOUR...WEST COAST TROUGH WILL RELAX A BIT AND EXPECT
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK WESTWARD. THE WESTWARD PUSH WILL
NOT BE ANYTHING GREAT...BUT JUST ENOUGH TO MENTION CHANCE POPS AGAIN
IN THE WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN ZONES ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE A
DRYING TREND AT ALL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 9:00 AM MST, 5 hours 44 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-141930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SAT JUL 14 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY...

EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND LAKE POWELL TO MOVE NORTH INTO UTAH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A
SUNNY START TO THE DAY WILL MEAN AN EARLIER START TO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WILL MEAN THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST
OF FLAGSTAFF. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO
STRONGER HEATING FROM THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY TO BE STRONGER THAN THE
STORMS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST TODAY.

SPOTTER REPORTS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 3:13 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZCoconino32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.