Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 3, 2001, 3:15 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2001, 3:15 PM MST (22:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 3, 2001, 3:45 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 3:30 PM MST | Hail 0.75 | Payson, AZ | Three quarter inch hail was reported in Payson. |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -170 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2035 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 8 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
474 WUUS55 KFGZ 032217 SVRFLG AZC005-007-032245- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 315 PM MST WED OCT 3 2001 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PAYSON * UNTIL 345 PM MST * AT 315 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAYSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO... PAYSON AT 320 PM MST REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3426 11146 3414 11130 3438 11097 3454 11116
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 3, 2:30 PM MST, 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 2:30 PM MST, 45 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST WED OCT 03 2001 .SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF FLAGSTAFF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ALONG THE RIM AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS EASILY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE MEAN FLOW SOUTHWARD OFF THE RIM AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PHX CWA. COOL POCKET OF AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL REPLACE THIS AIRMASS THURSDAY...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BECOMING CAPPED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST ZONES...WILL BE CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WHITES AND EASTERN RIM AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS YET AGAIN. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR SOUTH AS TUESDAYS AVN RUNS INDICATED. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT BECAUSE THE SPLIT IS NOT DEVELOPING AS PROMISED...OR BECAUSE THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. IT IS SIMPLY BECAUSE THE AVN/MRF MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING AN EVEN STRONGER TRAILING SYSTEM WHICH WILL SAP THE LEAD SYSTEM OF ITS STRENGTH. WILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM...AND EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF THE STILL PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE. THE TRAILING SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE THIS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE DYNAMICS. WILL BRING IN SCATTERED POPS EAST OF FLAGSTAFF SATURDAY...WITH CWA-WIDE POPS BROADBRUSHED IN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE THE NOSE-DIVE WITH LEAD SYSTEM AND STAY DOWN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. FROM TODAY...EXPECT NEARLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES OF COOLING BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL NOT BE FORECASTING HIGH ELEVATION WET SNOW AS OF YET...BUT COLD POOL WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING THIS WEEKEND. PETERSON. .FGZ...NONE.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2001Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.