Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2001

Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 9, 2001Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 9, 2001, 3:44 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Aug 9, 2001, 3:44 PM MST (22:44 UTC)
Expired: Aug 9, 2001, 5:45 PM MST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Yavapai County, AZ

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1316 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 092246
FFWFLG
AZC025-100145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
344 PM MST THU AUG 9 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 645 PM MST

* AT 344 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN OVER CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTH OF
  YAVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND 
ARROYOS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3495 11264 3499 11286 3487 11300 3467 11312
          3442 11296 3473 11262

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 9, 3:34 PM MST, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 3:34 PM MST, 10 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU AUG 09 2001

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A
DRIER AND WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12- TO 24-HOURS. THERE WERE A FEW STRONG AND ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS ARIZONA
REMAINED UNSTABLE AND UNTAPPED. FOR TONIGHT...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN UTAH AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THIS AREA OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT FOR
PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MODELS ARE INSISTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD WITH A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THINK THE
NET RESULT WILL BE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH A MORE
DIURNAL NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABLY STILL GO WITH A GENERAL
LOW END SCATTERED WORDING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE RIM WITH ISOLATED STORMS
ELSEWHERE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT.

IN THE EXTENDED...EXTENDED MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THROUGH WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL BE
IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO ARIZONA. DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MODULATE STORM ACTIVITY.
WILL LET THE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST STAND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

MCCOLLUM

.FGZ...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 9, 12:36 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	29 min
Aug 9, 1:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	33 min
Aug 9, 2:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2001 Every flash flood warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.