Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...

.CURRENT OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLASSIC VORTICITY
SIGNATURE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MN ATTM. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY
FIRING EAST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WIDELY SCT -TSRA DEVELOPING
IN SE ND WHERE CLEARING LINE WAS THIS MORNING WHERE DIFFERENTIAL SFC
HEATING WAS MAXIMIZED.

.SHORT TERM...WENT WITH ETA FOR DETAILS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. ADDED AN EVENING SUB PERIOD TO MOST
ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL NVA DOMINATES DUE TO DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA AS LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF
SATURATED SOILS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

.MID TERM...NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST H5 ZONAL FLOW TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC TROF MOVES IN. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN SD. HOWEVER...RIDGE OF 330+K 850 MB
THETA-E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ND DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
BL CAPE VALUES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH WEAK
SPEED SHEAR...IN THE SFC TO 700 MB LAYER MAY GENERATE A FEW ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUS...AGREE WITH
SPC SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK OUTLINE.

.EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES AT H5 EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE EXTENDED. OPEN
WAVE AT H5 COMES DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON WED BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON TUE IN THE
FAST NW FLOW AND DEPARTING JET ENERGY...ALTHOUGH MODELS NOW STARTING
TO SHOW A DRY SOLUTION. TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL EARLY...TRENDING
BACK TOWARD NORMAL WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

.FGF...NONE.

BRAMER/GODON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0323 PM    4 S COLFAX                ND   .75 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   RICHLAND

0337 PM    GALCHUTT                  ND   .75 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   RICHLAND

0340 PM    3 S 1 W ABERCROMBIE       ND   .88 INCH HAIL
06/16/01   RICHLAND

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR VALLEY CITY...SOUTHEAST
TO ELBOW LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL
CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED AROUND WAHPETON. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
TOUCH DOWN AND BECOME TORNADOES. IF ANY OF THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS DO
TOUCH DOWN...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND REPOgRT THEM TO YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET...AND THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL CEASE.

KELLENBENZ